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QJ76 A864 KJ K54.
pass pass, 1N (14-16) on your right, 3N on your left. Your lead.
edit: should mention this is imps.
Routine lead problem a deeper look.
#2
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Posted 2007-February-21, 13:36
I'm sure i would lead a low spade at the table w/o much thought.
#3 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2007-February-21, 13:44
Apollo81, on Feb 21 2007, 02:36 PM, said:
I'm sure i would lead a low spade at the table w/o much thought.
Same as me. Does any thought change your mind?
#4
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Posted 2007-February-21, 13:48
Jlall, on Feb 21 2007, 03:44 PM, said:
Apollo81, on Feb 21 2007, 02:36 PM, said:
I'm sure i would lead a low spade at the table w/o much thought.
Same as me. Does any thought change your mind?
I could buy a low heart. Maybe this needs less to be right and also less likely to blow a trick.
Give partner 5 of em and each opp 2....maybe this is more likely than finding pard with the ♠10 and the opps needing to lose to both of your kings.
#5
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Posted 2007-February-21, 14:32
It seems like the odds of you having two tricks in the minors is at least .6 * .75 = 45%. RHO has 3 HCP for every 2 HCP that LHO has (15-10 or so). so he's a 60% favorite to hold the cA. Once we give him this, their remaining HCP are about even, so it seems like RHO is a 75% (probably slightly better) shot to hold either the A or Q of diamonds. Probably 80% is more realistic, but we'll go with 75%.
I suppose the question then boils down to which is more likely:
partner having the sT (.33) and -enough- spades (or the 9) (.6 total?) * .45ish = ~10%
or
partner having 5+ hearts and them being 2-2, and them not having 9 running tricks.
(would probably need a computer to estimate this).
Partner having 4 hearts and hearts 3-2 probably won't be enough, since I'll be setting up 2 heart tricks for declarer in while leading them. They could easily get home with 2 spades, 2 hearts, 4 diamonds and 1 club (or 2-2-1-4), not to mention the strong chance that I get strip-squeezed (or regular squeezed).
It seems like a 2-2 break is slightly more likely, given the 1NT opening, since opener can't really be singleton (although could be a stiff K), but it's still probably only 60%, particularly if they don't have lots of methods over 1NT. Even so, the contract could still make with if they have 5 clubs, 2 spades, 1 heart, 1 diamond. If responder has a 5-card suit to one of the minor aces.
All in all, seems like the spades is the better shot to me, but probably not by as much as on first glance.
I suppose the question then boils down to which is more likely:
partner having the sT (.33) and -enough- spades (or the 9) (.6 total?) * .45ish = ~10%
or
partner having 5+ hearts and them being 2-2, and them not having 9 running tricks.
(would probably need a computer to estimate this).
Partner having 4 hearts and hearts 3-2 probably won't be enough, since I'll be setting up 2 heart tricks for declarer in while leading them. They could easily get home with 2 spades, 2 hearts, 4 diamonds and 1 club (or 2-2-1-4), not to mention the strong chance that I get strip-squeezed (or regular squeezed).
It seems like a 2-2 break is slightly more likely, given the 1NT opening, since opener can't really be singleton (although could be a stiff K), but it's still probably only 60%, particularly if they don't have lots of methods over 1NT. Even so, the contract could still make with if they have 5 clubs, 2 spades, 1 heart, 1 diamond. If responder has a 5-card suit to one of the minor aces.
All in all, seems like the spades is the better shot to me, but probably not by as much as on first glance.
#6
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Posted 2007-February-21, 14:46
I guess pard could hold the ♥Q....that ups a heart lead's chances/.
#7
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Posted 2007-February-21, 14:47
low spade, not heart
#8
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Posted 2007-February-21, 14:47
I lead a small spade. Even looking deeply I can't see a better option, so I await for enlightment.
--Ben--
#9
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Posted 2007-February-21, 15:10
Can partner possibly have more than a jack? (or a queen assuming that one of the opps pushed in making his/her bid). Partner can't have a high spade honor to help "establish" the suit for the defense.
J: Is this "the thought" to which you refer?
DHL
J: Is this "the thought" to which you refer?
DHL
"That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!"
#10
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Posted 2007-February-21, 15:17
I would never lead a low spade. The normal arguments for leading a low spade are (1) to avoid crashing partner's honor, and (2) to avoid blocking the suit. Here the chance of (1) is nil, and the I don't care about (2) either (in fact I'd be ecstatic if the suit is blocked because that means partner has an entry).
Against that, partner will usually have 0-1 HCP so on a low spade lead the only card he can have that will avoid blowing up a trick is the ten (slight overstatement but whatever). That's not very good odds, especially when the reward if partner has the right spade holding is only one long spade trick.
For me it's between the SQ and a small heart. I'd lead a small heart, which is both safer and requires less from partner (as little as xxx) to set up a trick.
Against that, partner will usually have 0-1 HCP so on a low spade lead the only card he can have that will avoid blowing up a trick is the ten (slight overstatement but whatever). That's not very good odds, especially when the reward if partner has the right spade holding is only one long spade trick.
For me it's between the SQ and a small heart. I'd lead a small heart, which is both safer and requires less from partner (as little as xxx) to set up a trick.
My name is Winkle.
#11
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Posted 2007-February-21, 15:40
spade.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
#12
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Posted 2007-February-21, 15:52
ok.. looked deeper.. start a top spade to begin unblock in the suit... I want to build an entry to partner. Seems like I am going to be endplayed to death otherwise... hope partners spade honor eventually can take me off the lead... If that is right, finding it after an hour of so and much discussion and knowing it is a problem count for anything? Probably not.
--Ben--
#13
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Posted 2007-February-21, 16:02
I hold all the outstanding strenght here.
The best chance to beat the contract is to find a five card major suit with partner breaking 2-2.
There's two reasons for leading a heart insted of a spade.
1. You need just one entry, since the suit is established at once.
2. The chance that you present declarer with a trick is nearly non-existing on a heart lead but a very real possibilitywith a spade lead.
All in all, a heart lead seems clear.
The best chance to beat the contract is to find a five card major suit with partner breaking 2-2.
There's two reasons for leading a heart insted of a spade.
1. You need just one entry, since the suit is established at once.
2. The chance that you present declarer with a trick is nearly non-existing on a heart lead but a very real possibilitywith a spade lead.
All in all, a heart lead seems clear.
Kind regards,
Harald
Harald
#14
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Posted 2007-February-21, 20:20
First thought: heart.
After some consideration: ♠ seems better in most situations.
After some consideration: ♠ seems better in most situations.
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#15
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Posted 2007-February-22, 04:49
low spade too quik as everyone, didn't find the other option untill I read Ben's post.
#16 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2007-February-22, 09:46
Well I led an immediate low spade "4th from your longest and strongest..."
Perhaps I was resulting myself since hearts were 2-5-2 around the table and a heart lead sets it but I really think it is the best lead now. Best being defined as "most likely to set the contract." Good job to those of you who at least considered this possibility, to be honest I did not.
Perhaps I was resulting myself since hearts were 2-5-2 around the table and a heart lead sets it but I really think it is the best lead now. Best being defined as "most likely to set the contract." Good job to those of you who at least considered this possibility, to be honest I did not.
#17
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Posted 2007-February-22, 09:48
I think this would be a great hand for a simulation...
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#18
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Posted 2007-February-22, 10:21
Jlall, on Feb 22 2007, 10:46 AM, said:
Well I led an immediate low spade "4th from your longest and strongest..."
Perhaps I was resulting myself since hearts were 2-5-2 around the table and a heart lead sets it but I really think it is the best lead now. Best being defined as "most likely to set the contract." Good job to those of you who at least considered this possibility, to be honest I did not.
Perhaps I was resulting myself since hearts were 2-5-2 around the table and a heart lead sets it but I really think it is the best lead now. Best being defined as "most likely to set the contract." Good job to those of you who at least considered this possibility, to be honest I did not.
you have 4H and 4S... what are the odds that partner will have five hearts compared to the odds that partner will have five spades?
--Ben--
#19
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Posted 2007-February-22, 10:31
inquiry, on Feb 22 2007, 10:21 AM, said:
Jlall, on Feb 22 2007, 10:46 AM, said:
Well I led an immediate low spade "4th from your longest and strongest..."
Perhaps I was resulting myself since hearts were 2-5-2 around the table and a heart lead sets it but I really think it is the best lead now. Best being defined as "most likely to set the contract." Good job to those of you who at least considered this possibility, to be honest I did not.
Perhaps I was resulting myself since hearts were 2-5-2 around the table and a heart lead sets it but I really think it is the best lead now. Best being defined as "most likely to set the contract." Good job to those of you who at least considered this possibility, to be honest I did not.
you have 4H and 4S... what are the odds that partner will have five hearts compared to the odds that partner will have five spades?
If spades are 5422 around the table, you may still need two rounds to set them up.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#20
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Posted 2007-February-22, 17:04
I think a low spade is still best.
If I catch AK on my right, I might blow a trick by force if I lead high anyway. If the spade honors are split - which seems likely, leading high and low seem to offset themselves, depending on which hand holds the 10. If pard holds the 10, I like the idea of building an entry, but declarer can just duck T1 and negate this plan.
Leading a heart doesn't feel like 'playing bridge' to me. Pard can have 0 to 2 on this bidding, and I don't to squash is Q / J.
So you didn't get a chance to shift to the heart? Declarer didn't have to knock out both minor suit Kings?
If I catch AK on my right, I might blow a trick by force if I lead high anyway. If the spade honors are split - which seems likely, leading high and low seem to offset themselves, depending on which hand holds the 10. If pard holds the 10, I like the idea of building an entry, but declarer can just duck T1 and negate this plan.
Leading a heart doesn't feel like 'playing bridge' to me. Pard can have 0 to 2 on this bidding, and I don't to squash is Q / J.
So you didn't get a chance to shift to the heart? Declarer didn't have to knock out both minor suit Kings?
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