[MickyB]

Scoring: IMP

1♦:1♥
1NT:2♠
2NT:3NT

♣65J

Plan the play.

---

[cherdano]

How about win, ♦K, ♦A. If diamonds split 3-2, I will just take my tricks, thank you.
If they are 4-1, I am now in the right hand to finesse a spade to my jack, which is slightly safer than finessing the other way.

Edit: Oh it seems much better to duck trick one, covering whatever card RHO continues the suit with. Then I always have a safe hand to finesse the spades to.

[Apollo81]

Duck trick 1.
Cover whatever club is continued.
Presumably it will go ♣Q,K,A. RHO now shifts to a heart, won with the ♥A.
Now cash the ♦A. If the ♦J, 10, or 9 appears from RHO then finesse the ♦8 on the next round. If the diamonds don't work out as such then try to get the rest of the tricks from the majors.

The problem with winning the first trick is that if you subsequently lose a trick to LHO it will go small club to ♣Q, club back, lost 5 tricks

[FrancesHinden]

Obviously we are making this most of the time....
What can do wrong?

The danger is that LHO has 5 clubs (or in fact RHO has 5 clubs). If he has A9862 we duck the CJ and cover the next club. If he takes and clears the suit, we lose a spade to East, if he ducks the second club we lose a spade to West.

What if he has AQx62? Now we should take the first club and lose any trick to West. If we duck, RHo continues the suit, we cover and lose a trick to West who switches to something. The problem now is we actually only have 8 tricks: 3 diamonds, 3 spades (via a losing finesse to West) and two hearts - because we haven't made a club trick yet. We have the same problem is clubs are 4-4 all along - we've given up on our 9th trick by ducking in clubs. We may also look silly in some layouts if RHO has AJ87x in clubs, LHO has led from Qxx

I may be missing something, but on quick examination I can't see a way to guarantee the contract on all layouts. Need to consider this a bit further...

[Edmunte1]

I'll take !CK. Cash ♦K +♦A, cash ♥A, play ♠ to Jack

[foo]

FrancesHinden, on Jun 25 2007, 06:46 AM, said:

I may be missing something, but on quick examination I can't see a way to guarantee the contract on all layouts.  Need to consider this a bit further...

I think I've got as good as possible.

Duck T1. Insert ♣T on presumed ♣x return at T2.
(If ♣Q return, Q, K, A, establishes ♣T)

If LHO wins ♣A, you are OK.

If LHO wins ♣Q, they presumably are going to return something in the hopes of getting RHO in to push another ♣ thru.

♠ or ♦ return not a problem, so let's assume ♥.

Win high ♥ and take immediate ♠ hook.
If hook wins, you likely have your 9th trick.
If hook loses, ♠'s are now established.

Let's say ♠J wins.
Now ♠K, ♦x -> A, ♠A to see if ♠Q drops. 3N made if so.

If ♠Q doesn't drop, ♦5 from the board.
If RHO plays a ♦ less than the ♦8, we insert the ♦8.
Win or lose, if we can insert the ♦8 we are protected against all 41 breaks and 3N should make.

If RHO plays a high ♦, forcing us to cover, we play for 32 ♦'s unless our count of the hand implies that going back to the board with the ♥A and putting ♦4 on the felt is better.

[FrancesHinden]

foo, on Jun 25 2007, 06:52 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Jun 25 2007, 06:46 AM, said:

I may be missing something, but on quick examination I can't see a way to guarantee the contract on all layouts.  Need to consider this a bit further...

I think I've got as good as possible.

Duck T1. Insert ♣T on presumed ♣x return at T2.
(If ♣Q return, Q, K, A, establishes ♣T)

If LHO wins ♣A, you are OK.

If LHO wins ♣Q, they presumably are going to return something in the hopes of getting RHO in to push another ♣ thru.

♠ or ♦ return not a problem, so let's assume ♥.

Win high ♥ and take immediate ♠ hook.
If hook wins, you likely have your 9th trick.
If hook loses, ♠'s are now established.

Let's say ♠J wins.
...

OK, but if the SJ loses and another heart comes back, we (probably) need diamonds 3-2, or we lose too many tricks.

Also, your suggested line goes off when LHO has, say,

Qxxx
109xx
x
AQ86

or - more embarrassingly -
Qxxx
10xxx
x
Q986

and we had a very simple line to make (win the opening lead, set up diamonds).

I think your suggested line might be best _if_ clubs are 5-3, but there's no proof yet that they are. After all, clubs are the only suit not bid naturally, we'd expect a club lead from 4.

[foo]

FrancesHinden, on Jun 25 2007, 04:00 PM, said:

OK, but if the SJ loses and another heart comes back, we (probably) need diamonds 3-2, or we lose too many tricks.

♠ AT96 ♥ AK854 ♦ A54 ♣ 5
+
♠ KJ ♥ J6 ♦ KQ863 ♣ KT43

Ummm, one of us is confused?

If LHO wins the ♠Q and puts a 2nd ♥ thru, we still have the ♦A as an entry to dummy.

So in that line, we've got 3 ♠'s + 2 ♥'s + 3 ♦'s= 8 tricks
and we still play off the ♠'s (SK, DA, SA, ST) before attacking the ♦'s in the manner I suggested (Dx to either D8 or DK).

Quote

Your suggested line goes off when LHO has, say,
Qxxx T9xx x AQ86

(RHO must be xxx Qx JTxx Jxxx)
"Sometimes you're the windshield and sometimes you're the bug."
I don't think 3N can be made against this.

Quote

or - more embarrassingly -
Qxxx Txxx x Q986

(RHO must be xxx Qx JTxx AJxx)
...or this.

In either case, doesn't all RHO has to do is split his ♦ honors and sit back and wait when you try to establish ♦'s?

In either of your suggested layouts, declarer can not establish either of his long suits and is doomed.

[cherdano]

Foo, when clubs are 4-4 you ALWAYS win by taking the first club trick and finessing spades either way, you get 3 spades + 2 hearts + 3 diamonds + one club.

[foo]

cherdano, on Jun 25 2007, 09:34 PM, said:

Foo, when clubs are 4-4 you ALWAYS win by taking the first club trick and finessing spades either way, you get 3 spades + 2 hearts + 3 diamonds + one club.

D'oh! I stand corrected. So the 1st logic puzzle for Declarer is to decide from the lead whether he believes more in ♣'s 44 or 53.

Apriori unless there is evidence to the contrary, ♣'s are more likely to be 53 than 44 by a ratio of 4712/3272= 589/409= ~29:20

So unless I have contrary evidence of greater chance of being true than ~1.44:1, I should play for ♣'s to be 53.

[nige1]

Scoring: IMP

1♦:1♥
1NT:2♠
2NT:3NT

♣65J

Plan the play.

---

Good problem Mike. I agree with Edmuntel: ♣ K, ♦ K, ♦ A -- but ♦ fail to split so -- ♥ A -- but ♥ Q is not singleton so -- finesse ♠ J -- but this loses to LHO's ♠ Q. You're still OK, however, unless RHO started with exactly 3 clubs including two honours.

You have a slight extra edge because RHO might play ♣ A at trick one from ♣ A J x