[cnszsun]

Your partner's hand is:

---

Because ♥ King is onside, you can make 4♥, but i'm not sure if it's reasonable to bid it.

[foo]

cnszsun, on Jul 12 2007, 10:02 PM, said:

Responder's hand is:
♠  JTxx  ♥  xxxx  ♦  QJT9x  ♣ 

Because ♥ King is onside, you can make 4♥, but i'm not sure if it's reasonable to bid it.

our hand:
♠ Kx ♥ AQJx ♦ Axx ♣ AT8x
1C-(1S)-pa-pa;
??

Given the bidding, of course the ♥K rates to be on side. This is not a 50% situation!

In addition, Responder's 1st pass showed ~0-5 HCP.
If you X, pd now has to =evaluate their hand in the context of the previous bidding=.
Responder's hand is a maximum in light of the previous bidding and should either bid 3♥ or 4♥.
I prefer 4♥ because 3♥ shows a maximum with better values. Not quacks as in here.
[A similar instance occurs opposite a direct overcall T/O X of (1H). Advancer would bid 4S with Kxxxxx.xxxx.xx.x or the like and 3S with a powerful GF hand.]


Those that rebid 2N instead of X'ing are unlikely to get to Game.

[TimG]

foo, on Jul 13 2007, 11:05 AM, said:

cnszsun, on Jul 12 2007, 10:02 PM, said:

Responder's hand is:
♠  JTxx  ♥  xxxx  ♦  QJT9x  ♣ 

Because ♥ King is onside, you can make 4♥, but i'm not sure if it's reasonable to bid it.

our hand:
♠ Kx ♥ AQJx ♦ Axx ♣ A108x
1C-(1S)-pa-pa;
??

Given the bidding, of course the ♥K rates to be on side. This is not a 50% situation!

LHO overcalled (and RHO did not advance), so the HCP would tend to be on the left. I'm not sure the extra vacant spaces on the right make this a better than 50% finesse.

[foo]

Actually, I should have said "Opener rates to have the missing important H cards or they rate to be where We can control them." SD, Responder doesn't know what H honors we are missing after all.

TimG brings up a good point. How does one evaluate these situations to place the likely location of a missing critical A or K?

We have 4+C, 5+D (it's 7 but responder doesn't know that), 8 H's, and probably 6 S's (The 1S overcall usually shows 5+S and Advancer did not raise them even preemptively.)

In addition, Opener's 2nd X shows a 5- loser hand or 18+ HCP since responder has shown themself to be very weak.

So what does that imply as to Overcaller's hand?
1= he most likely has 5-6 ♠'s
2= he has between 1-3 ♥'s (with 4+H, the auction would very likely be different).
3= the most likely distributions of 6 ♦'s is 42 or 33.
4= the most likely distributions of 9 ♣'s is 54 or 63.

So, =5233, =5323, 51(43), etc
I ?think? if you go through the list, the odds of Overcaller having 2-H is greater than the odds of Overcaller having 3+H.

[TimG]

foo, on Jul 13 2007, 11:23 AM, said:

Actually, I should have said "Opener rates to have the missing important H cards or they rate to be where We can control them."

We are the opener.

[foo]

TimG, on Jul 13 2007, 08:53 PM, said:

foo, on Jul 13 2007, 11:23 AM, said:

Actually, I should have said "Opener rates to have the missing important H cards or they rate to be where We can control them."

We are the opener.

Sorry, You missed it. I probably was not clear enough. I was talking about how Responder should Advance Opener's balancing X:

Quote

In addition, Responder's 1st pass showed ~0-5 HCP.
If you X, pd now has to =evaluate their hand in the context of the previous bidding=.
Responder's hand is a maximum in light of the previous bidding and should either bid 3♥ or 4♥.
I prefer 4♥ because 3♥ shows a maximum with better values. Not quacks as in here.
[A similar instance occurs opposite a direct overcall T/O X of (1H). Advancer would bid 4S with Kxxxxx.xxxx.xx.x or the like and 3S with a powerful GF hand.]