[benlessard]

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lol...you know you have a partner right? It's amazing how bad people can be with drawing conclusions from data (ie, using logic).

Its amazing how people draw conclusion with extrapolation instead of just reading the post.

In MP ok but in IMPs if 30% to make game vs 70% to make a partscore i want to be in game.Ive never said or imply that if ive got a hand that i feel is going to produce game 30% i would prefer to bid 5m then a natural 4m.

Just to make sure that my point is clear.

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On both hands 3NT and 5C had something like 33% chance of making, 4C close to 70% if I remember correctly. 4C gives you a plus on most hands and allows partner to bid game or slam on many hands where it is right (including 4S as Adam points out).

Talking about 2 hands that are not showned and saying that game as only 30% chance of success vs 70% for the partscore appear to be a rather weak argument if we are in IMPS.

[benlessard]

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Dude, when game is good partner will raise over 4C, and when game is bad partner will pass 5C. It is not a question of getting to 5C where game makes 30 % of the time vs getting to 4C which makes 70 % of the time. When you bid 4C you will avoid game when you should, and bid game when you should. The times when 4C is going down, 5C is going down multiple tricks. It will often be doubled. Sometimes 4C will escape undoubled, and even if 4C is getting Xed you still get an extra 200 or 300 points vs 5C.

You are rather naive thinking i didnt take partner input into account.

Lets say that before my partner is making a decision (without partner input) the number of tricks im expecting is something like ...

to make 6 = 5%
To make 5 =25%
To make 4 =49% (70% making of when you are in 4)
-1 or worse (in 4)= (21% going down in 4)

With these number bidding a natural 4C (and waiting for partner response) instead of taking a gamble at 3Nt or 5C will give you little profits EVEN TAKING PARTNER INPUT INTO ACCOUNT. The hands where 6 or 5 is making will have little difference except for more guessing when reaching 6.

(3H)----4m----(P)-----cue ...etc
(3H)----5m*---(P)-----tough spot.
*can be streched

The 21% hand where 4C is going down being in 5C will only cost undertricks and 3Nt is maybe less likely to be X then 4m.

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It will often be doubled.

Then i guess you dont bid 5C or 4C with the same hand then I because I rarely get doubled in these situations.

So where the profits are is when we are making exactly 10 tricks in clubs and 3Nt is going down and when partner make the correct decision bidding 5 when 5 is making and passing 4 when 5 isnt there.

We all know that some of the hand partner will pass 4 and 5 is making & bid 5 when 4 is the limit. Add to that some of the hands where 3Nt is making and 4C going down and at the end you will get little profits.

What we need to compare is the amount of expected imps (or mp) a NLM empty space will give you VS the profits (IMHO small) the availability of a nat 4m bid will give you.