[pine cone]

Scoring: IMP

---

the bidding went like this:
W  N E S
 -- /  /  1D
2C / 3C X
/  3S /  /
4C   /  / 4D
5C /   / x
//

first round: north lead D5, east D4,south DJ, west D6
now, what should south do?

[bill1157]

jack of hearts

Bill

[kenrexford]

Seven of spades.

My concern is getting caught in a heart-diamond squeeze.

If Declarer has AQxx in hearts, for instance, he might be able to pull trumps and end in dummy with the diamond King and a heart, where I have to save the diamond Ace and a heart, but then if Declarer has Ax left, I am screwed.

If Declarer can win, say, six clubs, two hearts, and two spades, that's 10 tricks. Now he needs that squeeze.

OK, how about ♠xx ♥AQ32 ♦x ♣AKQxxx?

If I win the diamond and return a heart, he ducks. On the second heart, he wins the Queen. He runs six clubs and then hooks the spade. His last two cards on dummy will be the diamond King and a heart, and I'm squeezed.

There seems to be a solution, though. I return a spade at trick two. If Declarer later ducks a heart to rectify hearts, a second spade traps him in dummy. If Declarer wins the spade and finesses a heart to return, he can then duck a heart, but I win this and return another heart to sever communications there. So, he trumps a diamond back. But, then when he ducks the heart we kill the diamond King.

[Trumpace]

What kind of leads do N/S play?

Would N lead the 5 from 985?

[Trumpace]

kenrexford, on Jul 2 2008, 05:09 PM, said:

There seems to be a solution, though.  I return a spade at trick two.  If Declarer later ducks a heart to rectify hearts, a second spade traps him in dummy.  If Declarer wins the spade and finesses a heart to return, he can then duck a heart, but I win this and return another heart to sever communications there.  So, he trumps a diamond back.  But, then when he ducks the heart we kill the diamond King.

And if declarer ducks the spade, pd will have to return a spade. So is ♠7 right? (I guess so, since he probably knows we likely have 3, but the bidding seems very strange to me).

Weird, all my posts in this thread have been about leads..

[pine cone]

The lead of North shows his D is 5 or 985.

This hand was played on bbo last night. I was north and my D was actually single.
I think there is little chance to beat 5C except D ruff. And I also think my p's 4D bid is not good.

Does anybody agree with me?

[TylerE]

On the auction it sounds to me like W is short in D, not N.

[kenrexford]

pine cone, on Jul 2 2008, 08:11 PM, said:

The lead of North shows his D is 5 or 985.

This hand was played on bbo last night. I was north and my D was actually single.
I think there is little chance to beat 5C except D ruff. And I also think my p's 4D bid is not good.

Does anybody agree with me?

If a diamond return is necessary to beat 5♣, you seem to need West to have ♠Kx ♥AQ ♦xxx ♣AKQxxx.

A spade return, however, beats 5♣ if West has ♠Jx ♥AQxx ♦x ♣AKQxxx.

For the former to be, partner must have ♠Jxxxx ♥xxxx ♦x ♣xxx.

For the latter, partner must have ♠K10xxx ♥xx ♦xxx ♣xxx.

Everything is plausible, except that the spade lead caters to Declarer having about four losers with good cause to believe that his values and shortness are well-placed and that length will find shortness. The diamond return caters to Declarer having about a half extra loser but an expectation that partner may well have short diamond values, but his heart honors are tight.

Seems too close to call, but the edge to me seems to be to the spade return. That hardly classifies as a conclusion that there is little chance to beat 5♣ except with a diamond return. I think there is on average a better chance to beat 5♣ with a spade return, personally.

[nige1]

kenrexford, on Jul 2 2008, 05:09 PM, said:

OK, how about ♠xx ♥AQ32 ♦x ♣AKQxxx?

If I win the diamond and return a heart, he ducks.  On the second heart, he wins the Queen.  He runs six clubs and then hooks the spade.  His last two cards on dummy will be the diamond King and a heart, and I'm squeezed.

There seems to be a solution, though.  I return a spade at trick two.  If Declarer later ducks a heart to rectify hearts, a second spade traps him in dummy.  If Declarer wins the spade and finesses a heart to return, he can then duck a heart, but I win this and return another heart to sever communications there.  So, he trumps a diamond back.  But, then when he ducks the heart we kill the diamond King.

On Ken's construction, whatever the defence, it seems that declarer can draw 3 rounds of trumps, making 2♠, 2♥, 6♣, and 1 ♥ ruff -- losing only 1 ♦ and 1 ♥

[FrancesHinden]

kenrexford, on Jul 2 2008, 11:09 PM, said:

Seven of spades.

My concern is getting caught in a heart-diamond squeeze.

<snip long analysis>

This is all way too complicated.

Most of the time partner had three diamonds he would have bid 3D over the double, not 3S. So it's hugely likely that partner has a singleton diamond, and I would just give him his diamond ruff.

p.s. our bidding is insane. Where did the double of 5C come from? And where did the double of 3C come from (admittedly a little less insane than doubling 5C)
p.p.s their bidding is insane. If East was going to bid over 3S, either x or 3NT seem eminently sound calls. How much were you going to enjoy playing 3Sx?

[pine cone]

Scoring: IMP

---

This is the west hand.

[kenrexford]

nige1, on Jul 2 2008, 11:37 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Jul 2 2008, 05:09 PM, said:

OK, how about ♠xx ♥AQ32 ♦x ♣AKQxxx?

If I win the diamond and return a heart, he ducks.  On the second heart, he wins the Queen.  He runs six clubs and then hooks the spade.  His last two cards on dummy will be the diamond King and a heart, and I'm squeezed.

There seems to be a solution, though.  I return a spade at trick two.  If Declarer later ducks a heart to rectify hearts, a second spade traps him in dummy.  If Declarer wins the spade and finesses a heart to return, he can then duck a heart, but I win this and return another heart to sever communications there.  So, he trumps a diamond back.  But, then when he ducks the heart we kill the diamond King.

On Ken's construction, whatever the defence, it seems that declarer can draw 3 rounds of trumps, making 2♠, 2♥, 6♣, and 1 ♥ ruff -- losing only 1 ♦ and 1 ♥

Oh yeah. Duh!

OK -- so my line is the only one to beat 5NT.