[qwery_hi]

JLOL, on Jan 22 2009, 10:23 AM, said:

qwery_hi, on Jan 22 2009, 10:17 AM, said:

JLOL, on Jan 22 2009, 09:59 AM, said:

Assuming you meant J first then AK, you are losing to Qx offside (2 combos) and stiff Q in both spots to pick up the 51 and 60 split you described.

This is why Jack first is a winner with AK987 opp Jx because you pick up all QTxxx's(4) onside, as well as a stiff Q but without the 7 you only pick up 1 QTxxx.

Sorry I wasn;t clear - I meant float J first and then AK.

With Qx offside, both Ace first and float Jack first get only 3 tricks, so its the same for both lines.

I think the only difference between --

1. Float J, then AK
2. Ace, then float J are

Stiff Q either hand where 2 is better, and
(void QT7543), (7 QT543) where 1 is better.

Yes you are right...soon Frances will get mad at me for staying up all night again I think This makes cashing the ace first slightly better.

As long as you don't have to work today...

But if there are 2 cases where 1 is better and 2 where 2 is better, why is cashing the ace slightly better and not equal?

[JLOL]

An instance of a 60 split is less likely than an instance of a 51 split. It is always true that the more even the split, the more likely it is. A combo of a 22 break is more likely than a combo of a 31 break for instance. This is a rule with no exceptions so it's pretty handy.

This is the opposite of the rule that if there are an even number of cards missing in a suit then they rate to NOT be split (for instance a 31 break is more likely than a 22 break, or a 42 break is more likely than a 33 break), but this is only because in those cases either player can have the longer holding (so it is really 42 + 24 is ore likely than 33). In this case we are always talking about 1 side having the longer one since it's only one combo we're thinking of rather than 2.

I'm sure that the percentage difference between a specific 51 and a 60 is very small though since they're both unlikely to begin with.

[qwery_hi]

JLOL, on Jan 22 2009, 10:47 AM, said:

An instance of a 60 split is less likely than an instance of a 51 split. It is always true that the more even the split, the more likely it is. A combo of a 22 break is more likely than a combo of a 31 break for instance. This is a rule with no exceptions so it's pretty handy.

This is the opposite of the rule that if there are an even number of cards missing in a suit then they rate to NOT be split (for instance a 31 break is more likely than a 22 break, or a 42 break is more likely than a 33 break), but this is only because in those cases either player can have the longer holding (so it is really 42 + 24 is ore likely than 33). In this case we are always talking about 1 side having the longer one since it's only one combo we're thinking of rather than 2.

I'm sure that the percentage difference between a specific 51 and a 60 is very small though since they're both unlikely to begin with.

Great explanation - this had been bothering me for a long time. So just counting the number of instances isn't enough when deciding which line is better - this makes it more tough to find the right line.