lamford, on Jan 14 2010, 04:45 PM, said:
[But, we don't need to decide on the relative merits of a spade lead; all we need to decide is if:
a) around 20% of leaders (EBU guideline, I recall from Jeffrey or Frances) of people would seriously consider a spade lead
b ) some of those would actually select it.
Given that nobody disputes that the diamond lead is demonstrably suggested over the spade lead by the UI, the adjustment seems a no-brainer.
Yes, the Law refers to "significant proportion". In England, the following guidance has been given by the Laws & Ethics Committee:
Quote
What is a “significant proportion”? The Laws do not specify a figure, but the TD should assume that it means at least one player in five.
I found some TD guidance on the ACBL website, but the guidance on Law 16, logical alternatives just refers to "significant proportion" ; so presumably ACBL TDs are given some latitude in interpreting this phrase.
In the actual case, I agree that a spade lead appears to be demonstrably suggested {maybe some DONT players can confirm how they play, but I would presume that 2
♠ says: I don't care what your suit is, I want to play in 2
♠ rather than being some 'pass or correct' bid}. Over a penalty double a non-forcing 2
♠ bid would tend to suggest a weaker suit.
I agree with everyone who says that a poll is needed to determine whether a spade lead is a logical alternative. My feeling is that it certainly ought to be as one of the plausible layouts where it goes off is where partner has
♦Qx and either
♠A or
♠K over dummy's ace.
The original poster asks whether the appeal has merit. To answer this type of question, we need to know the basis of the TD's ruling. For example, if the TD had already taken a valid poll, from which he had concluded that a
♠ lead was a logical alternative, then the appeal would indeed be frivolous.
I am unimpressed by:
Quote
EW appeal, arguing that West knew from the 4NT bid that a spade had no chance to defeat 4NT, so had to lead a diamond.
Does West never lead partner's suit when he knows that dummy has a stop? An alternative theory would be to assume that neither North nor South can have particularly strong spade holding as neither has seen fit to double 2
♠.