[paulhar]

Plan the play. Is there an alternative, and is it close? Does it matter whether you're playing MP or IMP?

S- QJ64
H- K986
D- J6
C- A54

S- AK3
H- A53
D- QT984
C- K2

1NT by you, 2C by pard (double) ending in 3NT.

Opening lead: club 8.
Plan your play.

[sceptic]

I would win the first trick and play a heart low and low from hand and finesse 9hearts (or just lose the first heart trick, and hope for a 3-3 heart break. I would leave diamonds alone as that will set up the club suit for opps

[1eyedjack]

I am going to assume that both the ♦AK are with the long ♣ for the double, and the best chance of a 9th trick is in ♥, and the best chance of that is hoping that RHO has ♥Hx doubleton.

I plan to run the ♥ 9 from dummy, and later cash ♥A then finesse.

Ducking trick 1 might be right if ♣ are precisely 6-2 but otherwise gains nothing and removes my options of using ♣ as entries between the hands, so I win the first ♣ in dummy, run all the ♠ discarding ♦ and then run the ♥9. If RHO covers the ♥9 then I beat it and lead ♥ back to dummy. If LHO splits then I duck, and use ♣A as entry back to hand to take ♥ finesse.

I don't see IMP v MP as affecting my play.

Is it close? Yes, an alternative is to go for 3-3 ♥.

[sceptic]

I think finese heart best as just playing to lose first trick is not so good, incase of bad heart split

[pclayton]

1eyedjack, on Aug 12 2004, 08:47 AM, said:

I am going to assume that both the ♦AK are with the long ♣ for the double, and the best chance of a 9th trick is in ♥, and the best chance of that is hoping that RHO has ♥Hx doubleton.

I plan to run the ♥ 9 from dummy, and later cash ♥A then finesse.

Ducking trick 1 might be right if ♣ are precisely 6-2 but otherwise gains nothing and removes my options of using ♣ as entries between the hands, so I win the first ♣ in dummy, run all the ♠ discarding ♦ and then run the ♥9.  If RHO covers the ♥9 then I beat it and lead ♥ back to dummy.  If LHO splits then I duck, and use ♣A as entry back to hand to take ♥ finesse.

I don't see IMP v MP as affecting my play.

Is it close?  Yes, an alternative is to go for 3-3 ♥.

I dont think there is any indication about the location about the diamond honors with the double.

Clubs look like they are 5-3 or 6-2. Hearts probably aren't 3-3 anyway, but I might catch Q, J, T, QJ, QT or JT with RHO.

1. Duck the club (if RHO doesn't have an entry, he might shift)
2. Win the ♣K
3. Cask the ♥A - if I get an honor, I'll continue.
4. Run the ♦9. Worst thing is that LHO wins and continue the ♣.

Technically, the best way to play the ♥ suit is to run the 9 from dummy, and then cash the Ace, but I can't combine my chances in diamonds and hearts I don't think.

At MP's, you could play this wide open and play for clubs 6-2 and the diamond honors split, and make 10 tricks. I like the idea of trying for a heart honor first, which might hold you to 9 tricks.

[1eyedjack]

pclayton, on Aug 12 2004, 12:11 PM, said:

I dont think there is any indication about the location about the diamond honors with the double.

You think he would double 2♣ with Q to six and a bust? Perhaps some would. Perhaps you can ask the opps for their style here before committing.

[Free]

Just duck trick one (standard play) and go for ♦... If the honours are split, you always win.

[inquiry]

Duck first club. If clubs are 6-2 and diamond honors are split or WEST has both (I agree that unlikely), this duck makes it cold.

At matchpoints, after ducking the first club, I will play on diamonds, making four when diamond honors split and EAST has the hoped for 6 card club suit (3D, 2H, 2C, 4S).

At imps, it is a different game. I want to combine the chances of lucky heart split with good luck in diamonds. I win second club and lead a S-AKQ in that order, and if cond club and cash the fourth spades throwing a diamond, to get a count (of course if RHO has a spade void, i don't cash all four, but you get the idea). Now in dummy, I am likely to come off with the heart 9, if east fails to cover I duck. If he covers, I jump up with the ACE... i am very interested in the heart 7....

Let's assume EAST plays low and I duck. West is in. If all goes well, he has to return a diamond or a heart as he is out of black cards... Now I get a chance at 3-3 hearts, EAST with only one top diamond honor. I may make a trick less (loss an imp), but I may make while those playing on diamonds go down.

Ben

[1eyedjack]

Free, on Aug 12 2004, 01:17 PM, said:

Just duck trick one (standard play) and go for ♦... If the honours are split, you always win.

And if the honours are not split, you always lose. And if Clubs are 5-3 you still lose if the Diamond honours are split (unless the hand with long clubs has singleton Diamond honour).

[luke warm]

just clubs were doubled, right? not the final contract... i'd duck the first club on gp.. i need a trick, so where am i more likely to get it with the least danger? well, rho *has* to have an entry or two, else why x 2C? he had to x for the lead against a future 3nt...

his only sure entry is diamonds, so i'm playing a low heart to the 8... win the next club, lead low heart to A and watch the spots hopefully... if i don't pick up my 9th in this way, i'm sunk... then i'll be kicking myself for not killing rho's probable *only* diamond entry (with my luck)

[whereagles]

Seems like we have two plans:

1. Duck club, play on diams. Works with 6-2 clubs and 1-2 diam honor(s) in West. Also works with 5-3 clubs if West has diam AK (or defensive error).

2. Finesse 9 hearts. Later cash top heart and finesse the 8. Alternatively, play for 3-3 hearts.

Just a matter of sitting down and calculate the odds, I think.

[1eyedjack]

whereagles, on Aug 13 2004, 05:52 AM, said:

Just a matter of sitting down and calculate the odds, I think.

I don't think you can "calculate" the odds of East having both ♦AK. A priori it may be possible, but the effect of the double is imprecise.

[whereagles]

Indeed. But it also depends on who East is. Some people have no problem in doubling 2C without side entries. Not a very sound strategy, but you can't discard it a priori.

[inquiry]

whereagles, on Aug 13 2004, 06:52 AM, said:

Seems like we have two plans:

1. Duck club, play on diams. Works with 6-2 clubs and 1-2 diam honor(s) in West. Also works with 5-3 clubs if West has diam AK (or defensive error).

2. Finesse 9 hearts. Later cash top heart and finesse the 8. Alternatively, play for 3-3 hearts.

Just a matter of sitting down and calculate the odds, I think.

Well the odd that East has both diamond odd (ignoring the bidding) is farily easy to calculate...it is 24% (not 25& as many assume).

Now, given EAST has six clubs, to west two, the odds of EAST having both diamond honors decrease considerably based upon the vacant space theory...to only 13.7 percent (you will have to take my word for this for now). If EAST has only 5 clubs, the odds of EAST having both AK of diamonds is only 18.3%.

The odds of a 3-3 heart split, ignorng the opponents bidding would be 35.5%, if east has five clubs, these odds increase to 36.2% (bet you didn't expect that!!!), and if clubs are 2-6 these odds of 3-3 hearts decrease to 31.1%.

.

[Yzerman]

Without reading any of the replies, and without much analysis, I win 1st club in dummy and play the 9 of hearts. If not covered I duck hoping to catch Qx, Jx, or 10x in RHO. If not covered I pass the heart to LHO. I will win the 2nd club in hand and cash heart honor, if honor fall in RHO I finesse, if no honor I am reduced to play for 3/3 hearts.

Good defenders will always arrange to keep a diamond entry with the club length, so the only time that ducking club and playing diamonds works is when RHO has stiff honor. 3/3 hearts is less likely than 4/2 + 5/1 hearts (with single honor). So I will play percentage in heart suit for honor+1 (including 10) in RHO.

MAL

**** Now I have read replies, and realize how stupid my instincts are. I agree with incquiry. Ducking the club is on the house and maintains flexibility in the reds. Winning 2nd clubs in hand and cashing 4 rounds of spades and then running the H9. In end position must 'guess' whether LHO has 1 diamond honor OR hearts come in (RHO's discards on run of spades will give some inference).

[Trpltrbl]

I duck the first ♣.
Win the next one and play the Ace of ♥.
It is 47 % chance to get 3 ♥ tricks.

Mike

[luke warm]

question for ben and mike, re: cashing the spades first.. does it seem that this play can be made anytime, and by doing it now you incur a slightly greater chance of losing the heart finesse and the spade return (5/1, yes, but those things happen)?

[Trpltrbl]

That's why after cashing the 2nd ♠, and the ♠ don't behave you abort that plan

Mike

[Hummer_]

Sorry bad assumption

This post has been edited by Hummer_: 2004-August-17, 14:47

[Hummer_]

If clubs are 3-5 then west will hold both honors or east will have a stiff honor 33% of the time and the clubs will not run. If clubs are 2-6 then east will have both honors 36% of the time and the clubs won't run 64% of the time. 5 card suits appear in about 48.4% of the hands (I doubled the % for the 55s) and 6 card suits in 13.8%. The weighted chance of the clubs not running is about 40%.
An interesting situation arises when east has a stiff ♦ honor and 5♣s and you lead towards the ♦J. With ♦Hxxxx will west fly?

Mike