[kfay]

Well, you asked. Now what?

---

Alert isn't clear but 3♠ shows shortness SOMEWHERE, not necessarily spade shortness.

[phil_20686]

I think it is ok to bid keycard and then bid a slam, provided partner has KQxx hearts and five clubs, slam will be ok probably. Its just hard to know for sure how you can find out, the key is the spade position, but there is no way to find out if he has xx or Qxx etc.

I think its also ok to pass, or to make cue bids. Everything feels like it wins about the same amount of the time.

Ideally partner will have only Kxxx hearts and the club ace, and now either black suit queen is ok.

[TimG]

phil_20686, on 2012-November-13, 12:53, said:

I think its also ok to pass, or to make cue bids. Everything feels like it wins about the same amount of the time.

Pass would be very low on my list of choices. I like 4♠. Over 5♣, I'll try 5♥. Doesn't this mean that I am looking for trump honors and secondary spades rather than secondary clubs?

[Phil]

Agree with 4♠. It doesn't commit us to slam and I'd rather partner do the driving this time.

[ArtK78]

phil_20686, on 2012-November-13, 12:53, said:

I think it is ok to bid keycard and then bid a slam, provided partner has KQxx hearts and five clubs, slam will be ok probably. Its just hard to know for sure how you can find out, the key is the spade position, but there is no way to find out if he has xx or Qxx etc.

I think its also ok to pass, or to make cue bids. Everything feels like it wins about the same amount of the time.

Ideally partner will have only Kxxx hearts and the club ace, and now either black suit queen is ok.

I don't think that passing would be optimal. You will play in your 2-1 fit.

Seriously, it is extremely likely that there is a slam here if partner has his bids. I would key card. Assuming that we are not off two key cards, I will bid slam. The only way that we fail is if we are off a quick cashing trick and a slow spade trick, and that would be very unlucky.

[mikeh]

ArtK78, on 2012-November-13, 15:13, said:

I don't think that passing would be optimal. You will play in your 2-1 fit.

Seriously, it is extremely likely that there is a slam here if partner has his bids. I would key card. Assuming that we are not off two key cards, I will bid slam. The only way that we fail is if we are off a quick cashing trick and a slow spade trick, and that would be very unlucky.

partner presumably holds 8 cards in spades and clubs. Yes, he rates to hold more clubs than spades, but surely the most common holding in spades is 3. I think it overly optimistic to simply assume that we'd be unlucky to catch him with xxx KQxx x KQxxx or xxx KQxx x AQxxx, given that he showed 9-12 with 4 hearts. On the first, the 5 level isn't safe, and on the second we are committed to a bad slam.

I just never understand why even good players use keycard when the answer cannot tell them what to bid, with any degree of certainty. To me, bidding keycard and then claiming to be unlucky when partner tables a hand entirely consistent with his bidding is a confession of flawed thinking.

I can accept a slam try here, since there are holdings where slam is cold, and I think we can just risk the 5-level. It isn't safe but the increased chance of bidding a slam on solid ground makes this small risk acceptable.

I agree with 4♠ followed by 5♥ over whatever he bids. He'll know I have mild slam interest and that I couldn't keycard, so he should be able to work out why and to evaluate properly a good proportion of the time.

My feeling is that making the try is better than the alternative of signing off, but if I were limited to keycard or signing off, I'd sign off. At least I'd be sure I was going plus.

[mike777]

btw interesting the opp have 10-11 diamonds,nv, and are silent at an expert table.

assume 3s in this case is an unlimited splinter so I will rkc with 4s.

not stated but does 3s here promise a void, not just shortness somewhere? that is a pretty common way to play this bid.

[lalldonn]

mikeh, on 2012-November-13, 15:36, said:

I just never understand why even good players use keycard when the answer cannot tell them what to bid, with any degree of certainty.

There are many times when no auction you can choose will tell you what to bid with any degree of certainty. For example, if you bid 4♠ then signoff how does partner know to stop with QJx KQxxx x Kxxx? How would you bid AKxx Axxxxx xxx - where keycard also won't tell you what to do? Cuebidding auctions are not always black and white, so you can at least keycard and avoid the certain problem of slam off two aces. I don't disagree with 4♠ but my point is you don't have to wait for situations where keycard is 100% perfect to use it.

It's the same criticism I have for how some people view splinter bids. Great, you won't ever splinter with a singleton honor or a void because it's not a perfect description, but do you have some other bid in your bag of tricks that's a better description? If not then why not use the closest bid to what you have?

[wyman]

3s is 9-12 mike.

[gnasher]

lalldonn, on 2012-November-13, 16:11, said:

For example, if you bid 4♠ then signoff how does partner know to stop with QJx KQxxx x Kxxx?

I agree with the rest of your post, but with that hand I think partner should bid Keycard over 4♠.

[lalldonn]

gnasher, on 2012-November-13, 17:34, said:

I agree with the rest of your post, but with that hand I think partner should bid Keycard over 4♠.

That's fair.

Edit: Unless partner has 2 + extra length, like, the actual hand?

[rhm]

4♥

I am not optimistic about slam
Too many key-cards are missing including the spade queen.

This scenario is easy to simulate:

1000 deals

DD result:

Average number of tricks: 11.2
6♥ makes on 321 deals that is 32% of the time
5♥ makes on 846 deals or 85% of the time

Note that double dummy favors the declarer here. He finds the singleton trump king or ♥Qxx or the doubleton spade queen always. The simulation did also not take into account opponents silence, which reduces the small chance for a void in diamonds much further.
I can live missing what is at most a 23 HCP slam.

Rainer Herrmann

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Side Issue:
What do you use 1H - 2S for ?

Zelandakh's 2S-single jump would give you "more room" to show shortness somewhere .
You would be one level lower to better explore..... including voids.

[PhilKing]

Asking works badly here.

I like 4♣ over 3♠ to show my own shortage and a hand that obviously would not know what to do if I asked partner for his singleton.

Partner now signs off with wastage in clubs or shows his singleton (or drives slam) if reasonably suitable.

[Fluffy]

assuming partner has low singleton in diamonds, my analysis says: wasted points: ♠J, ♥QJ, ♣KQJ, worth it points: ♠Q, ♥K, ♣A, and some features like dubleton spade or a 5th club with something.

There is no way to tell partner that ♠Q and or doubleton are more valuable than ♣Q or doubleton.

If partner has the magic ♥K and ♣A I'd say slam is at 50% or so, he should have 2 cards in the mixture of ♠Q, ♥Q, ♣KQ, or also possible only 1 card and some jacks. Wich means he has less than 50% of holding ♠Q wich kind of compensates for other holdings that also get rid of spade losers.

If you also put into the mixture unlucky things such as ♥Q being a loser, this all tells me that my best possible move is to sing off in 4♥. Bidding further won't tell me if slam will be good, but it will tell me that 5 level is unsafe. Yes, slam can be really solid, but I can't find it, 5♥ can also be horrible, and bidding 4♠ won't help partner to evaluate a thing.

[JLOGIC]

I am giving up