[Lord Molyb]

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Matchpoints if it matters.

[aguahombre]

Only if I get to demand a T/0 double from lefty and partner gets to mini-splinter 3C.

And then, only if I can forbid the Ace and a Diamond for a rough.

[inquiry]

i don't want to play in slam on this one.... seems against the odds.. sure diamond loser, and problem with clubs... it has to be considerably against the odds.

[SteveMoe]

Counting 12 tricks seems to require 3 ♠ ruffs, 2♣ ruffs, 2 trump tricks, 1♠ trick, 1♣ trick, and 3♦ tricks.
Superficially seems to require 2-2 trumps, ♠A(x(x)), and no ♦ ruff.
We fail to get 3♦ tricks for 1/2 5-0 splits (2%) and 80% of 4-1 splits (22.4%) so we succeed 75.6% -
Bracketing 3-1 trumps splits (we might handle some/many of these), success probability lies between
12.5% (Axx) x 40% (2-2 Trumps) x 75.6% -and- 12.5% x 90% (4-4 or 3-1 trumps) x 75.6%
or 3.8 - 8.5%
No way slam.
K opposite void warns away...

[mikeh]

This sort of thread really doesn't, imo, advance our understanding of the game.

As others have pointed, this is a bad slam. Apart from the possible diamond issue, which in and of itself isn't that important, and certainly not a sufficient reason to want to avoid slam, there is the rather obvious problem of how to play the hand after a fairly normal trump lead...or a spade honour through the K.

On the trump lead, we play club A and ruff. Now...how back to hand? We can't play a trump, since that eliminates our third club ruff. A diamond, even if it doesn't lead to A and a ruff, will simply get the opps playing another trump, and down we go.

A spade honour through dummy get us ruffing. Now what?

If we play on diamonds, they can do some harm by arranging a ruff on most 3-2 breaks as well as some 4-1's.
If we try to cross-ruff, we'll run out of trumps pretty fast, and be dependent on the diamonds behaving AND a 2-2 trump break.

I assume that in real life the slam made or was allowed to make. So what?

Implying that one should both want to bid this slam and be able to do so with good methods is wrong, imo.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Lord Molyb, on 2013-February-19, 20:03, said:

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Matchpoints if it matters.

1H
.... - 2S! ( Zel's mini-splinter or in-between splinter; Zel: correct me if I'm wrong )
2NT! ( asks )
.... - 3C ( ♣ )
4NT! ( Meckwell's Voidwood, excluding ♠; 4S would be RKC )
.... - 5C ( 0/3 )
5D ( ♥Q-ask )
.... - 5NT ( yes, no minor K )
6H

[Lord Molyb]

What? This is a 68+% slam.
All you have to do is hold the diamonds to one loser and ruff 3 clubs... you can even ruff the third one high to protect against a 5-3 split.
The spades are not necessary. Leading a diamond to the king and leading a second one to the queen later holds it to one loser unless RHO has A10xx (in which case LHO would have led a singleton diamond and you'd be down already) and once you've done that and ruffed the clubs your hand is high.

[Cyberyeti]

Lord Molyb, on 2013-February-20, 13:12, said:

What? This is a 68+% slam.
All you have to do is hold the diamonds to one loser and ruff 3 clubs... you can even ruff the third one high to protect against a 5-3 split.
The spades are not necessary. Leading a diamond to the king and leading a second one to the queen later holds it to one loser unless RHO has A10xx (in which case LHO would have led a singleton diamond and you'd be down already) and once you've done that and ruffed the clubs your hand is high.

I'm going to lead a trump, how do you sort the entries ? at any point if you play a diamond, I'll play another trump unless you've already ruffed all your clubs in which case I'll play a spade. You need hearts 2-2 as well.

[Lord Molyb]

Cyberyeti, on 2013-February-20, 13:39, said:

I'm going to lead a trump, how do you sort the entries ? at any point if you play a diamond, I'll play another trump unless you've already ruffed all your clubs in which case I'll play a spade. You need hearts 2-2 as well.

I didn't get a trump lead. I got the ♣K lead. Although after looking after it again, I will agree that the slam is nearly impossible after continued trumps.

[FrancesHinden]

How many matchpoints was 4H+2 worth?
Still want to be in slam?

[Lord Molyb]

60% and no, I always get the wrong leads anyway.

[the hog]

Bid this thin slam. Why? I don't want to be there.

[Alik1974]

SteveMoe, on 2013-February-20, 01:00, said:

Counting 12 tricks seems to require 3 ♠ ruffs, 2♣ ruffs, 2 trump tricks, 1♠ trick, 1♣ trick, and 3♦ tricks.
Superficially seems to require 2-2 trumps, ♠A(x(x)), and no ♦ ruff.
We fail to get 3♦ tricks for 1/2 5-0 splits (2%) and 80% of 4-1 splits (22.4%) so we succeed 75.6% -
Bracketing 3-1 trumps splits (we might handle some/many of these), success probability lies between
12.5% (Axx) x 40% (2-2 Trumps) x 75.6% -and- 12.5% x 90% (4-4 or 3-1 trumps) x 75.6%
or 3.8 - 8.5%
No way slam.
K opposite void warns away...

Agree perfectly

[Zelandakh]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-February-20, 13:10, said:

1H
.... - 2S! ( Zel's mini-splinter or in-between splinter; Zel: correct me if I'm wrong )

The meaning is correct but the North hand is too weak to qualify imho. I would treat it as a maximum mixed raise (3♦ response).