barsikb, on 2013-July-19, 08:26, said:
still confused about 4-4 VS 5-3
I know that if both fits are majors, 4-4 shd become trump. Still the same even if 4-4 is a minor and 5-3 is a major?
The extra points for bidding a major suit slam as opposed to a minor suit slam is only relevant at matchpoints. Still, an effort should be made to get to the better slam, especially if you do not believe others will get to slam at all.
At IMPs, the extra 2 IMPs for +980 as opposed to +920 (or +1430 vs. +1370) should be ignored.
The easiest way to answer the question is to look at the hand. How often will 6
♦ make and how often will 6
♠ make? To make 6
♠, you need spades to break no worse than 4-1 and you need the
♥A onside. You also need to have no diamond losers. The
♥A will be onside 50% of the time, and spades will break 5-0 a small percentage of the time. There is also a small chance that the diamonds will have a loser (or that there will be an opening diamond ruff). So, the chances of making 6
♠ are less than 50%.
How about 6
♦ played by North? You need reasonable breaks in both spades and diamonds. If diamonds are 3-2 and spades are no worse than 4-1, you don't need the
♥A onside! You have 12 tricks - 5 spades, 5 diamonds (3 top diamonds and a ruff in each hand - you throw 2 of North's hearts away on the long spades) and 2 clubs. And, even if you get bad breaks in spades and/or diamonds, you can still make 6
♦ most of the time if the
♥A is onside (there are some chances that the opps will lead a singleton spade and will get a spade ruff on winning the
♥A - unlucky). This latter chance comes in on this hand - on a black suit lead, declarer pulls 2 rounds of trumps. On finding the 4-1 diamond break, declarer must lead a heart towards the K to get a 12th trick. After the
♥A is found onside, declarer can win any return, pull trump and claim 12 tricks - 4 diamonds, 5 spades, a heart and 2 clubs (no club ruff needed).
And, in 6
♦ by North, if they lead a heart, the
♥K is protected since North is the declarer (assuming they don't have a heart ruff - very unlikely).
Clearly, the chances of making 6
♦ are much better than 50%.
I would guess that getting to 6
♦ making would score very well in any matchpoint event, even if the
♥A were onside. And if I were playing IMPs and I lost 2 IMPs because my partner and I bid 6
♦ and the other side got to 6
♠ making, I would consider it unlucky.
The bottom line is that when you have a choice between bidding a slam in a good 4-4 fit as opposed to a good 5-3 fit, the 4-4 fit will often produce more tricks since losers can be disposed of on the run of the 5 card suit. At worst, you break even. There may be some rare exceptions, but this is a good rule of thumb.