[iandayre]

A simple question at MP - win the first trick, hoping to cash 13 off the top? Or duck to rectify the count for a squeeze?

I realized I don't want all 4 hands seen, and I don't know how to show only two. So...

N Hand - 94, A4, K83, AKQ762

S Hand - A762, KQ93, AQJT, 4. Opening lead S8, 9, T ... Auction was 1C-1H, 3C-6NT

[manudude03]

3-3 break with no info is around 36%, the squeeze line is pretty close to 100% assuming the 8 is top of nothing. I'm ducking this.

edit: There is a chance of 13 tricks even if clubs don't break and you win the first, but it doesn't add much to the chances You will need JT of hearts dropping in 3 + squeeze, or someone(presumably East) having sole guard of spades, hearts and clubs (say a 4414 hand with KQJT tight in spades).

re-edit: Well, ok, a club switch will be annoying if they find it, but even then, we have reasonable chances.

[PhantomSac]

It's not as clear of a duck as it seems at first since if RHO guards clubs, he can shift to a club, and importantly if LHO guards clubs, if he guards hearts also then he will be squeezed out of his spade(s) on the run of the diamonds and we will still make it by then just driving the club.

Also in the highly unlikely event that RHO guards clubs/hearts/spades we are gonna squeeze him in allllllll the suits if we win .

So against perfect defense ducking only gains when LHO has 4 clubs and RHO guards hearts, and will blow a trick against 3-3 clubs.

That being said I would still duck, RHO will not always (or even usually) find a club shift if he guards clubs, everyone might not be in 6N, and even if they are some people will go down on a spade lead even when LHO guards H+C since they will forget to run diamonds first (even if you cash 3 clubs and then start cashing diamonds it is too late).

[masonbarge]

iandayre, on 2015-February-08, 13:39, said:

A simple question at MP - win the first trick, hoping to cash 13 off the top? Or duck to rectify the count for a squeeze?

I realized I don't want all 4 hands seen, and I don't know how to show only two. So...

N Hand - 94, A4, K83, AKQ762

S Hand - A762, KQ93, AQJT, 4. Opening lead S8, 9, T ... Auction was 1C-1H, 3C-6NT

---

If you want to duck, you might want to start by not covering. One principle I always follow: give the opponents a chance to make a mistake. If opponents are excellent players, the opposite general principal applies, i.e., don't give them an option.

The problem with ducking is that it is not going to take a high level of skill for E to return a club with 4 to the J10. And also, if you don't duck, your chances have to be better than a 3-3 club split against average opp's. You might get a discard from 4 small clubs, for instance.

Got to run. It is quite easy to do 2 hands, just open the editor and do what is obvious. I had never done it before

[nige1]

iandayre, on 2015-February-08, 13:39, said:

A simple question at MP - win the first trick,
hoping to cash 13 off the top?
Or duck to rectify the count for a squeeze?
The hand-editor (♠ symbol)
produces the layout on the left.

---

Duck the ♠ lead.
Win ♣ switch with ♣A.
Cash ♦AKQJ, ♠A, ♥A, ♣K.
Reduce to the 4-card ending on the left
with north on lead.
Lead ♣Q, discarding ♠7 unless it is good.
If ♣7 is not good
then attempt to cash ♥KQ9.

---

If defenders fail to switch to ♣,
Reduce to the 4-card ending on the left,
with South on lead and
slightly better squeeze chances.

---

[wynsten]

Possible layout:

---

Win Ace of spades and play 4 rounds of diamonds pitching a club. In eight card ending, if same player guards hearts and clubs, he has been stripped of his spade winner or entry to partner's spade winner. You must "read the cards" to figure this out. Most players wait until the last discard to give up their holding. Lead of 8 of spades suggests KQJ10 all with East (as does play of 10). Etc

So, especially at MP, win the first round and try for 13 with strip squeeze as extra chance if clubs uneven. The clue that a squeeze without the count is possible is the fact that you don't need a squeeze to develop a fourth club trick - you just need the squeeze to strip away a spade trick.

[nige1]

Phantomsac alluded to Wynsten's squeeze without the count, which also works when RHO holds both majors (as in this diagram).

---

After ♠A, ♦AKQJ, ♣AK, declarer reaches the same 6-card ending, with the lead in dummy.
Now the ♣Q squeezes RHO. If RHO keeps ♥s, Declarer can discard a ♥, and concede a ♠, to set up a 2nd ♠ trick.

---

[bluechip10]

iandayre, on 2015-February-08, 13:39, said:

A simple question at MP - win the first trick, hoping to cash 13 off the top? Or duck to rectify the count for a squeeze?

I realized I don't want all 4 hands seen, and I don't know how to show only two. So...

N Hand - 94, A4, K83, AKQ762

S Hand - A762, KQ93, AQJT, 4. Opening lead S8, 9, T ... Auction was 1C-1H, 3C-6NT

This hand has fascinated me all day. I would duck, and then hope that RHO does not switch to a club. All this preparation is based on a 4-2 ♣ distribution, the JT of ♥ not dropping, and the 8 of ♠ is the high spade in LHO hand.

[wynsten]

nige1, on 2015-February-09, 16:33, said:

Phantomsac alluded to Wynsten's squeeze without the count, which also works when RHO holds both majors (as in this diagram).

---

After ♠A, ♦AKQJ, ♣AK, declarer reaches the same 6-card ending, with the lead in dummy.
Now the ♣Q squeezes RHO. If RHO keeps ♥s, Declarer can discard a ♥, and concede a ♠, to set up a 2nd ♠ trick.

---

Yes - but when East pitches a heart you must choose between your layout (and cash the hearts) and this layout (and set up a club). So ... did West lead a singleton ♠8?

---

[gszes]

It may seem like a lousy way of thinking BUT 6n is a very effective contract
since some can be in the 7 level. The thought process behind ducking is simple -
we really hope those bidding 7 cannot make it and we are enhancing our chances
of making the next best contract.

[wynsten]

gszes, on 2015-February-10, 15:20, said:

It may seem like a lousy way of thinking BUT 6n is a very effective contract
since some can be in the 7 level. The thought process behind ducking is simple -
we really hope those bidding 7 cannot make it and we are enhancing our chances
of making the next best contract.

The people in 7NT are irrelevant. If it makes, they beat you; If it is down, you beat them. It is the other people in 6NT whom you are trying to beat or at least tie. If there is a realistic chance that many teams are in 3NT, which ALWAYS makes, then playing as safe as possible is good strategy.

[lrussell]

I duck the spade because
1. Not everyone is in 6NT so making should be a decent score. I don't care about those in 7NT.
2. Not everyone got a spade lead. Those that didn't can just play on clubs. So it must be a better chance to hope to tie them when clubs are not 3-3 (64.5%) than hope to tie them when clubs are 3-3 (35.5%)

[wynsten]

lrussell, on 2015-February-10, 22:38, said:

I duck the spade because
1. Not everyone is in 6NT so making should be a decent score. I don't care about those in 7NT.
2. Not everyone got a spade lead. Those that didn't can just play on clubs. So it must be a better chance to hope to tie them when clubs are not 3-3 (64.5%) than hope to tie them when clubs are 3-3 (35.5%)

Yes to point 1, but your math is wrong on point 2. Winning the first spade ties whenever clubs are even (35.5%) OR when they are uneven but the strip squeeze comes home (maybe another 30%) for a total of about 65%. Ducking does not tie 64.5% - it only ties when clubs are unevenly split AND the squeeze comes home reducing the 64.5% to about 40%. So winning the first spade is better here too.

[nige1]

wynsten, on 2015-February-10, 07:56, said:

Yes - but when East pitches a heart you must choose between your layout (and cash the hearts) and this layout (and set up a club). So ... did West lead a singleton ♠8?

---

If LHO has led a singleton ♠8, then RHO failed to overcall your partner's 1♣ opening, holding
♠ K Q J T 5 3 .
Many would overcall, even with
♠ K Q J T 5.
Defenders sometimes false-card when on-lead to slams, which enhances the case for ducking the first trick