[mikestar13]

Phil, on 2015-June-11, 00:03, said:

Pass. Weak trump and outside defense dissuade me from action.

There's two bad scenarios that can come from bidding: a) phantom, b) getting killed when they were making versus two positives: a) making game or b) profitable sac. The former seem more likely than the latter however, due to the texture of this hand.

Auctions like this are also a reason I'm starting to lean toward IJO's versus precision pairs that love (1M) - (bla) - 4M.

A good point--the arguments for 4♠ assume SAYC/2 over 1 bidding by the opponents, where the 4♥ is almost certain (barring unskilled opponents). These are reasonable arguments, though I am not persuaded in this particular case--and I might be wrong. Against a Precision pair, where this raise could easily be a flat 13-14 unsuitable for slam, bidding 4♠ is suicide. The quick, uninformative 1M-4M sequences (with or without intervention) are Precision's greatest strength, which I say as someone who has played one variety or another of Precision since the late 70's. IJO's as a countermeasure is a most interesting idea.

[KurtGodel]

At the risk of a torrent of "OMG you have a singleton how can you pass": the clearest pass I have seen for a long time.
You have a fairly average shaped hand for this auction. You have worse spades than you might, you have better defence than you might. How many heart ruffs are you scoring with three trumps anyway?

[lmilne]

These sorts of problems aren't normally won by argument. Both sides will usually take more than words to be convinced. Or am I being too cynical?

A side point - perhaps in these sorts of problems a simple way of answering is more valuable. Something along the lines of "bid/pass - feel strongly about this"/"bid/pass - but not clear"/"could go either way"?

At the table, bidding 4♠ runs into ♠AKQx on your left. More interestingly, at all vulnerable, 4♠ is still right, going for 500 against 620. A few of the top players in my country (Australia) are bidders - the canon seemed to be pass, however.

Thanks everyone for your comments.

[benlessard]

Surpringly missing AKQx is not always that bad for your side, these values often translate into offense even when facing a stiff if responder got long trumps. So they could still make 4H. What im more worried about is missing QJTx or similar holdings where 4S rate to be -2 and 4H will have no play.

That why its safer to overcall or preempt with solid intermediate without AK than AKxxx(x).

QJT8xx with a side ace is a much better and safer preempt than AKJ7xx and nothing on the side, I know most wont believe this so all i can say is keep a track record of preempting/sac gone wrong and you will see that 85% of the bad results is because of bad intermediates/slow trumps loser.

[Finanzier]

Even if my P overcalls solide if have no clue. So I pass.
Possibly E has 5♠ and lurks for a 4♠ bid. If P passes my pass I think
we can wether make 4!S nor limit enough the downs.
If he doubles 4!H I will pass, because my Kings are good enough for a defeat but by far not good enough for a make in our contract.
Finally, P might have - ok unlikely - 4!H. Even if he has only 3 with my few trumps 4♠ remains bad.
Nonvulable it might pay to bid, but I dont like to throw a coin.
The Foam at the moutht of my P if they make 4!H - we down going only 2 - is by far not so great, as we go down 3 in 4!S in view of E's 4 or 5♠ instead of them letting go down 3
in vies of P´s ♥AJTx.