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Plan the play in 5D. 2 7653 AKT86542

#1 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 08:48

IMPs, All Vul. Short auction.



LHO leads the K, RHO follows with the 4 (UDCA).

Spoiler

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#2 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 09:29

Looks like I am probably going down on a heart ruff before I ever get in. I guess I will play the 5 in a likely futile effort to get west to switch.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#3 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 10:09

View Postbillw55, on 2015-November-04, 09:29, said:

Looks like I am probably going down on a heart ruff before I ever get in. I guess I will play the 5 in a likely futile effort to get west to switch.


Spoiler

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#4 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 11:30

View PostWesleyC, on 2015-November-04, 10:09, said:

Spoiler


Spoiler

Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
-gwnn
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#5 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 11:39

Spoiler

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#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 13:07

View Postbillw55, on 2015-November-04, 09:29, said:

Looks like I am probably going down on a heart ruff before I ever get in. I guess I will play the 5 in a likely futile effort to get west to switch.


It's more likely from W's PoV has E 4 than I do, I play a true card, the 3.
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#7 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 13:16

View PostCyberyeti, on 2015-November-04, 13:07, said:

It's more likely from W's PoV has E 4 than I do, I play a true card, the 3.


How can that work? Playing the 3 makes it obvious that east is encouraging, which he would not do with xxxx or xxx.
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#8 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 13:19

View PostWesleyC, on 2015-November-04, 11:39, said:

Spoiler


Attitude is not obvious. West needs to know if east can ruff the third round or not.

Also I see that you added a spoiler to the OP, but without enough information. Which heart does west lead at trick 2, and what does east play on this?

I am starting to wonder if the punch line is that west doesn't have the A.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#9 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 14:24

View Postbillw55, on 2015-November-04, 13:16, said:

How can that work? Playing the 3 makes it obvious that east is encouraging, which he would not do with xxxx or xxx.


Depends if your instinct is to give count or attitude, lead of the K 90% has the A behind it with QJ10x on the table, so surely you signal upside down count.
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#10 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 15:48

View PostCyberyeti, on 2015-November-04, 14:24, said:

Depends if your instinct is to give count or attitude, lead of the K 90% has the A behind it with QJ10x on the table, so surely you signal upside down count.

OK, so the plan is to hope that west interprets the 4 as even count, either 2 or 4, and switches to a club in case it is 4. I suppose that could work.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 16:46

View Postbillw55, on 2015-November-04, 15:48, said:

OK, so the plan is to hope that west interprets the 4 as even count, either 2 or 4, and switches to a club in case it is 4. I suppose that could work.


It's not a great plan, but it's the best one I have
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#12 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2015-November-04, 19:22


WesleyC writes "IMPs, All Vul. Short auction.
LHO leads the K, RHO follows with the 4 (UDCA)."
Spoiler


IMO
Spoiler


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#13 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-November-05, 00:01

The key idea that Cyberyeti and nige picked up is that you need to play the 3. This gives you by far the best chance if West holds AK98. Essentially, the is just an extension of playing the card that you are known to hold. In the analogous situation, where the opponents play natural signals and RHO played the second highest heart, you should play the highest heart.

Bill's point that if the opponents are signaling attitude, they can't go wrong is a fair one. However, I do think that almost everyone will be signalling count here, especially on the lead of a King. And anyway, you might as well give yourself *some* chance rather than none.

The full layout was:


So West knows that a second heart is cashing but when they do cash the A and the 9 falls they've still got a problem. A reasonable agreement in this situation is to always play smallest and then 2nd highest from 4 which would solve the problem. Alternatively if West read the 9 as (impossible) suit preference for spades, then maybe that would also help them find the winning defense.
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#14 User is offline   jodepp 

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Posted 2015-November-05, 06:57

Play the 6 (slightly preferable to the 5 - there are more possible holdings for West to ponder that make the 4 discouraging).

Playing low can't be right, given the problem parameters.
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#15 User is offline   atlantajon 

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Posted 2015-November-06, 22:26

The only chance here is to confuse the OPPS into thinking that I am ruffing the next heart and NOT LHO.... this I might be able to do if I play the 5 on trick 1....conceiling the 3...then following with the 6.....hoping to confuse RHO into thinking his partner is playing from 349...and trying to show the Q of spades...this might entice him into trying to cash ace of clubs....to beat the contract...rather than giving the ruff. It's a real long shot....but really the only play I have. If they are playing UDCA.....if standard carding then I need to play the 6 first followed my the 3.....same idea.
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