Posted 2016-May-21, 14:32
In the last couple of days of political posturing our (UK) chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, warns the UK electorate that a Brexit vote would cause a downturn in house prices.
For context, Osborne is part of the Bremain camp, and we should assume that his public comments are designed to bolster support for his political agenda, ie to persuade the electorate, on balance, to waver in favour of voting to remain in EU.
I am having a bit of difficulty following the logic. There may be some doubt about whether a (significant) downturn would indeed materialise. But let us assume for now that the assessment is accurate.
Instinctively I would have thought that a one-off correction in the housing market should not have a significant impact on voting intentions, but if it does then there are certainly a proportion of voters who would welcome such a development.
There are certainly some who would be upset by a downturn:
The construction industry
Those expecting to inherit their shortly-to-be-deceased parents' estates
Those using the property market as an investment opportunity relying on capital appreciation for their return, including but not restricted to the buy-to-let market
Possibly a sundry smattering of others.
On the other side of the coin there are those looking to buy - a very substantial subset of the population.
On the edge of the coin are those already with owned properties, possibly mortgaged, who may be minded to move properties. If moving up the property chain, then they should be encouraged by a downturn in prices. If moving to smaller properties, ie those moving into retirement seeking to downsize and realise their (surplus) capital, would be discouraged.
But on the whole, I would guess that with one vote per person, those currently having problems getting on the housing ladder, *and* their parents, make up such a slice of the total cake that were I Osborne I might have been inclined to keep quiet about this particular statistic.
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