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Percentage problem

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2016-September-05, 13:35



what is the best line on a non trump lead?
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#2 User is offline   alok c 

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Posted 2016-September-05, 14:17

One D Ruff & H finesse
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#3 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2016-September-05, 14:31

What was the lead? A heart takes away your option to try for 3-2 clubs.

I try DA, D ruff, SJ hoping East wins (or W doesn't switch to hearts, which is unlikely). If they duck I cross to CK to draw more. Then try 3-2 clubs using HA as entry to cash, or if they break badly then H finesse.

Edit: there could also be some squeeze chances

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#4 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2016-September-05, 15:28

I think the question hints at a crossruff.

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the 3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#5 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2016-September-05, 15:30

sorry didn't see you could stablish clubs, the lead at the table was a heart. The perfectage question is 10 in 2 rounds vs 10 in 3 rounds and heart king onside.
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#6 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2016-September-06, 00:35

Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.

At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam. :)

ahydra
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#7 User is offline   alok c 

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Posted 2016-September-06, 00:50

View Postahydra, on 2016-September-06, 00:35, said:

Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.

At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam. :)

ahydra

Actually tripleton10/doubleton10 probability is 60/40 ,so if you ruff 2 there is 60% chance that they will take 2 tricks in . finesse is having a 50% chance of loosing.
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#8 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2016-September-12, 02:03

View Postahydra, on 2016-September-06, 00:35, said:

Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.

At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam. :)

ahydra


I agree with your maths and conclusion. Heart finesse and 1 ruff definitely looks like the best option, and I'd take the finesse even at trick one.

Trying to ruff 2 diamonds before drawing trumps also risks giving up a ruff/promotion in diamonds on an otherwise favourable layout. For example, if LHO has 3 diamonds and the Tx of spades.
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Posted 2016-September-12, 17:16

View PostFluffy, on 2016-September-05, 13:35, said:

what is the best line on a non trump lead?

View PostHanoi5, on 2016-September-05, 15:28, said:

I think the question hints at a crossruff.


Agree with Hanoi5. e.g.

A, ruff, AK, KA, ruff, ruff low, ruff. ruff with J, (over) ruff.

The same plan, in a slightly different order, works on any plain suit lead.

If the plain-suits behave, then the cross-ruff succeeds when East has 3+ s or T -
- You can handle many bad trump breaks
-- even 5-0 as in the diagram on the left.

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