[manudude03]

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This was my personal favourite hand from this weekend. Where do you want to be and how do you bid it? For anyone on Bridgewinners, I posted the south hand at the critical point in our auction.

[wank]

6d?

2nt-3c-3d-4d-4nt is how i expect i'd bid it.

[Kaitlyn S]

 wank, on 2016-October-02, 15:44, said:

6d?

2nt-3c-3d-4d-4nt is how i expect i'd bid it.

6D requires 3-3 diamonds and 4-3 clubs to avoid the spade finesse (and that assumes South plays it!) It always goes down on 5-1 diamonds and often goes down on 5-1 hearts. It's hard to believe it's so much over 50% as to be worth worrying about.

My auction would be the same as wank's.

Is this matchpoints? With a 4-2 diamond break you have 11 tricks but don't necessarily have the entries to get there; in fact a spade lead you had better play the 8 from dummy and the ace from and to keep your entry, and on a club lead, unless the HA is doubleton, you'll have to lose a spade to get to the dummy and the opponents might get a couple of clubs.

So, it's possible that 4H is theoretically better than 3NT as that will guarantee an entry North's diamonds when hearts are 3-3 or someone has Ax. 4H also gives you play for two overtricks with a spade lead to beat those +460s (if either South plays it or East leads from the SK.)

[manudude03]

 Kaitlyn S, on 2016-October-02, 16:18, said:

6D requires 3-3 diamonds and 4-3 clubs to avoid the spade finesse (and that assumes South plays it!) It always goes down on 5-1 diamonds and often goes down on 5-1 hearts. It's hard to believe it's so much over 50% as to be worth worrying about.

My auction would be the same as wank's.

Is this matchpoints? With a 4-2 diamond break you have 11 tricks but don't necessarily have the entries to get there; in fact a spade lead you had better play the 8 from dummy and the ace from and to keep your entry, and on a club lead, unless the HA is doubleton, you'll have to lose a spade to get to the dummy and the opponents might get a couple of clubs.

So, it's possible that 4H is theoretically better than 3NT as that will guarantee an entry North's diamonds when hearts are 3-3 or someone has Ax. 4H also gives you play for two overtricks with a spade lead to beat those +460s (if either South plays it or East leads from the SK.)

Butler IMPs.

[Kaitlyn S]

 manudude03, on 2016-October-02, 16:54, said:

Butler IMPs.

OK, then I guess I'd like to be in 3NT. in 4H, a 5-1 split could interrupt the run of the diamonds and present entry issues, 5D can go down on a 5-1 split if East leads a spade or if West leads a heart to East who returns a spade (and I'd prefer the +1 or +2 in 3NT anyway) and 6D goes down on 5-1 diamonds, likely goes down on 5-1 hearts, needs all of 3-3 diamonds, 4-3 clubs, and East not leading a spade to avoid the spade finesse. I believe that friendly defense is also needed, as the tricks you're going to take are 3 diamond, CAK, small club ruffed good, 2 club ruffs, the SA, and three hearts. If the opponents hold back the HA, taking three hearts might be a challenge given that you need to draw trump (using all your trump) to enjoy your fifth club. You might have to get the HA out early in which even a 4-2 heart break may put you down when a defender wins the second heart and gives partner a ruff.

3NT is pretty cold (the defenders can hardly negotiate three club tricks) but 4NT could be in danger on a club lead and I think it's hard to stay out of 4NT unless North wants to give up on looking for a diamond slam. Maybe a strong club system can stop in 3NT. So to answer your initial question, 3NT is where I want to be but I'm afraid I would get to 4NT.

[Cyberyeti]

Quote

3NT is pretty cold (the defenders can hardly negotiate three club tricks) but 4NT could be in danger on a club lead and I think it's hard to stay out of 4NT unless North wants to give up on looking for a diamond slam. Maybe a strong club system can stop in 3NT. So to answer your initial question, 3NT is where I want to be but I'm afraid I would get to 4NT.

4N is laydown. Win the club and play ♦KJ and ♥KQ. They have to allow these to win, otherwise you have 4♦, 3♥ 2♣ 1♠. With ♥ KQ in the bank, play a small spade to the Q, you now have 4 diamonds and 2 tricks in each other suit.

[ovncylmz]

I would go and finish my challenge game first;)

[gszes]

FWIW
want to be in 3n but end up in 4n

2n
3c (normal stayman)
3d
4d
4h*
4s*
4n*
pass

*all bids following the principle of majors NT minors and assuming there was a REASON responder showed diamonds rather than emphasizing NT. The 4h bid shows something in hearts and a problem for nt elsewhere. 4s same thing but makes it obvious the problem is clubs and 4n means clubs well covered. Pass then settles level and strain with the wasted club values opposite singleton.

[Cyberyeti]

We would use a different stayman variant, but N would know he was facing a 3325 20-21 (and probably not a good 21 with that shape or it would have been upgraded) so we'd play 4N also.

[Zelandakh]

Natural. 2NT - 3♣; 3♦ - 3♠; 3NT - 4♦; 4NT looks to be relatively standard for Puppeteers.
A Strong Club system can indeed stop a level lower but in my case it also means playing from the weak hand:
1♣ = 15+ nat/bal or 18+ any
... - 2♣ = ♥ + ♦, GF
2♦ = GF relay, usually 18+
... - 2♥ = 4 hearts, 5+ diamonds
2♠ = relay
... - 2NT = 5 diamonds
3♣ = relay
... - 3♠ = 3451, min
3NT

Luckily neither being a level too high or playing from the weak hand seems to matter on this deal.