[johnu]

 Winstonm, on 2017-January-06, 10:54, said:

I will win and lead a low club, intending to duck a club, rectifying the count, then win any return, cash the club Ace (Vienna Coup), and play for an automatic heart/club squeeze.

Which doesn't work if East has ♣K(xx) and < 4 hearts, but does work if East doesn't have ♣K (or has < 3 clubs).

[Winstonm]

 johnu, on 2017-January-06, 12:08, said:

Which doesn't work if East has ♣K(xx) and < 4 hearts, but does work if East doesn't have ♣K (or has < 3 clubs).

In that case, the squeeze may not operate but the hand can still be made - and with a much better count on it. On the other hand, if I lead a club to the Q and it loses, I can now only use the squeeze if one player holds only 2 clubs.

I'm not sure which is the right play. I only know what I would do at the table - and a squeeze is always more fun that leading low to the Queen.

As to why I come to this conclusion, it is pretty simply. RHO should have 7 spades for his preempt over 2C. That leaves 6 unknown cards. LHO has 2 spades. That leaves 11 unknown cards. A priori heart split is 4-2, so LHO is more apt to hold the 4 as there is more room in that hand. That now gives LHO 4 hearts and 2 spades with RHO holding 7 spades and 2 hearts. The likelihood that LHO holds any one card - the club K - is 7-4.

So it seems to me the most likely holdings favors a line to play as there is a squeeze against LHO.

[johnu]

 Winstonm, on 2017-January-06, 12:32, said:

In that case, the squeeze may not operate but the hand can still be made - and with a much better count on it.

True, if you run this through a double dummy analyzer, there is always a 100% solution.

[MrAce]

 johnu, on 2017-January-06, 12:00, said:

In the OP's original post, East had Jx of hearts so I'm not sure why 4 heart tricks weren't automatic.

E had Jx ♥?

Oh man...and we have been debating this hand forever....for what? LOL

[phil_20686]

This hand seems reasonably straight forward to analyse, but in practice there are a couple of extra things to consider:

1) If you play a low club of the dummy at trick two the number of players who can play low smoothly enough from kxx at MP is incredibly small. As in. Maybe 40-50 defenders in the whole world might attempt it. This could just be carelessly conceding an over trick at match points. At teams, its much easier to duck, so if you are playing MP playing a low club of the dummy at trick two intending to duck if rho plays low. If you are playing teams I would basically always go up with the Q.

2) If you are worried about rho being good enough to duck at teams you might start by cashing four rounds of diamonds. Its hardly beyond the realm of possiblility that rho might pitch three spades and a club from a shape like 6403, worried that you have three spades. If rho has two diamonds then the hand will likely be cleared up for you when you play a club off dummy. If he is 7420 or something you won't go wrong!

I am guessing that you "went wrong" on this board by doing something like cashing 5d playing the ten of hearts to the K and then a club off, where upon lho won and played a heart. It can seem tempting to insert the 9 and this point, but there is really no need. The finesse isn't free and that costs you when its Jx on your right, which is a moderately likely layout. besides which, lho can see dummy and wouldn't play a heart lightly from Jxxx!

[cherdano]

 phil_20686, on 2017-January-08, 15:21, said:

This hand seems reasonably straight forward to analyse, but in practice there are a couple of extra things to consider:

1) If you play a low club of the dummy at trick two the number of players who can play low smoothly enough from kxx at MP is incredibly small. As in. Maybe 40-50 defenders in the whole world might attempt it. This could just be carelessly conceding an over trick at match points.

I don't think that's true. I think there are quite a few players whose first instinct would be to play low - e.g. because declarer might be leading towards QT9 - but aren't even close to world class.

[shevek]

I'm sure all you guys are right but I would tend to play West for ♣K.
Run diamonds throwing a club, cash the other top spade then four rounds of hearts, throwing in West with ♥Jxxx.
Slightly inferior maybe ...