[thepossum]

Recently played this. Almost everyone was in 3NT and as far as I'm concerned should not have made it. Decent defence would kill it. So why did everyone except me bid it

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[johnu]

 thepossum, on 2018-November-03, 15:14, said:

Recently played this. Almost everyone was in 3NT and as far as I'm concerned should not have made it. Decent defence would kill it. So why did everyone except me bid it

Playing 3NT against the best lead of a spade, declarer has 6 top diamond tricks, 3 clubs after taking 2 club finesses, and ♠A for 10 top tricks.

[phntmshark]

This hand belongs in 3NT. Best way to get there is just (2H)-2NT-p-3NT. If you really hate distributional NT hands (though they are hard to avoid after opponent pre-empts), even on your bidding the proper bid over partners 3H is 3NT, he can't have a heart stopper so you must show yours.

[sfi]

There are many hands North could hold where 3NT is cold and 5D has no play. Simply give North both black kings rather than the CA, for instance. You were lucky that both games made on this hand, but when partner cue bids 3H (simply showing a good hand and asking for a stopper) it's very likely to be right to show such a good stopper and bid 3NT.

[pescetom]

 thepossum, on 2018-November-03, 15:14, said:

Almost everyone was in 3NT and as far as I'm concerned should not have made it. Decent defence would kill it.

As it is it makes 6NT against any defence, also 5m.
[EDIT: was based on wrong data, see successive messages]

But 3NT is the logical place to be.

[hrothgar]

 thepossum, on 2018-November-03, 15:14, said:

Recently played this. Almost everyone was in 3NT and as far as I'm concerned should not have made it. Decent defence would kill it.

You really need to learn how to count to 9 before giving advice about how good or bad a given contract is...

Not only is 3N cold and makes a few overtricks

[sfi]

 pescetom, on 2018-November-03, 15:39, said:

As it is it makes 6NT against any defence

I think you're being a tad optimistic in the club suit.

[nullve]

 thepossum, on 2018-November-03, 15:14, said:

Recently played this. Almost everyone was in 3NT and as far as I'm concerned should not have made it. Decent defence would kill it.

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Press the 'GiB' button to get double dummy analysis. The numbers on green background are available overtricks against optimal defence.

[pescetom]

 sfi, on 2018-November-03, 15:47, said:

I think you're being a tad optimistic in the club suit.

The Double Dummy Solver Module of Bo Haglund thinks not.

[sfi]

 pescetom, on 2018-November-03, 15:50, said:

The Double Dummy Solver Module of Bo Haglund thinks not.

Then I question its programming. On a spade lead, all East has to do is hold onto the SQ and HA. Now West can keep all four clubs to stop that suit, plus a card to get to East's hand. That kills any slam, and West can even hold another winner on the run of the diamonds.

It does make on any other lead since you have time to get two heart tricks.

[Cyberyeti]

 pescetom, on 2018-November-03, 15:39, said:

As it is it makes 6NT against any defence, also 5m. But 3NT is the logical place to be.

GIB says 10 tricks in NT on a spade lead.

5♦ given a virtually certain heart ruff is the same 50:50 as 3N. At teams I'd rather be in 5♦ (loses 1 IMP if the club finesse works but the K doesn't come down (3 if it does drop), gains 3 if the club finesse fails). Matchpoints is a coin flip.

[pescetom]

 sfi, on 2018-November-03, 15:58, said:

Then I question its programming. On a spade lead, all East has to do is hold onto the SQ and HA. Now West can keep all four clubs to stop that suit, plus a card to get to East's hand. That kills any slam, and West can even hold another winner on the run of the diamonds.

Right of course, and not Bo's fault: I had J and K of clubs swapped during data input.
Corrected it gives 4NT, 5D and 4C.

[eagles123]

5D is a horrendous bid you have KJTX in hearts ffs, what else would u need to bid 3N haha

[rmnka447]

After the normal defense of ♥ 4 by West, East winning ♥ A and returning a middle ♥ for a ruff by West, you still need the ♣ finesse to work to make 5 ♦.

Partner has shown values by bidding 3 ♥ and is likely to hold something in the black suits unless opener has made some really ratty 2 ♥ bid. So 3 NT is an alternative. Following that wise bridge tip by ?(Hamman? Wolff?) "when in the auction 3 NT is an alternative, it probably should be bid."

[nige1]

Recently played this. Almost everyone was in 3NT and as far as I'm concerned should not have made it.
Decent defence would kill it. So why did everyone except me bid it on a 50-50 finesse.
Beginners are learning to bid this way on distributional suit contracts.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


IMO, at MPs, 3N is as good as or better than 5♦
thePossum seems happy to share his insights with us beginners, however,
rather than to elicit comment

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[Cyberyeti]

 nige1, on 2018-November-03, 17:23, said:

[/size]
IMO, at MPs, 3N is as good as or better than 6♦
thePossum seems to want to share his insights,however, rather than to elicit comment - He doesn't care what anybody says

I don't think he was suggesting 6♦, more 5♦.

Without the 2♥ opener, 5♦ is clearly superior at IMPs and about even at MPs. With it where the ruff against 5♦ is virtually guaranteed, it's much closer at IMPs.

[The_Badger]

The easiest way to look at this is that 3NT is just a more popular (an understatement) contract than five of a minor. Partner can't have any ♥s as East has shown six and you have four, so should have some help in ♠s and ♣s, and of course ♦s as indicated by the 3♥ bid.

Partner has a balanced hand 5332, and in this day and age it is even very acceptable to open 1NT with 6322 shape with a good(ish) six card minor, and one of the reasons for that is the highlighted phrase in the first paragraph. And it is also quite acceptable to finish in 3NT with just a single stopper in a side suit: it happens every day of the week.

Your hand doesn't normally gain any tricks by having ♦s as trumps and ruffing in the long hand, and there are two less tricks to make in a 3NT contract too.

I trust, like my co-commentators, that I have convinced you that 3NT is a better contract, possum, and I am sure they will also agree once in a while 5♦ will be the better place to be, but on percentages many, many pairings will chance their arm with a 3NT contract holding the South hand.

[Left2Right]

Suggestion: Run hands like this through Deep Finesse.

Reasons:

1. In addition to what you get from GIB, D.F. reveals which leads, if any, will defeat the contract.
2. D.F. allows you to modify the hand slightly to see whether some seemingly small change in the opponents cards will change the outcome.
3. By stepping through the hand trick by trick using D.F., you can sometimes see whether making (or defeating) the contract requires some miraculous play along the way or something more vanilla.

[pescetom]

 Left2Right, on 2018-November-04, 07:28, said:

Suggestion: Run hands like this through Deep Finesse.

The site is insecure and the app is very old.
Are you running it on Windows 10 without problems ?

[maartenxq]

If you do not care what anyone says why post this?
Maarten Baltussen