[pilowsky]

This hand just came up in today's (7-table) Club game.
The title is the friendly advice dropped in chat by North after the hand was played.
What does East have?
What does North have?
What is the best bid for South?

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Here's the full deal

Spoiler

West led the ♥4.
I looked at my partner's hand in horror.
I could hear my friend East grinning (she was about 1000 kilometres away).
And I claimed.

In a Pythonesque twist, the same thing happened 2 boards later except that West made a disciplined 2♠ preempt, my partner doubled and I bid 2NT which he passed for 2NTS+2.
I didn't ask if there were any NT bids that he would consider to be not a "shut-out".

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[DavidKok]

I think you're about an ace plus a queen too strong for 3NT. The notrump bids become more wide-ranged as the level goes up, both in strength and distribution. For me 3NT would show around 16-20 with their suit stopped and no overwhelming desire to play 4M instead. WIth all the aces and kings I'd rate this hand to be worth closer to 26 points, just to give a number. Of course if you double partner will bid clubs and you have a new decision to make, but presumably 4NT is to play on that auction. On the actual North hand your partner will jump (maybe even to 4NT to show the minors), and you have a chance of getting to 7♦ (or 7NT if you're greedy).

[pilowsky]

I forgot to mention that my (pick-up) partner insisted on playing Gerber - FWIW.

[johnu]

I don't think it makes any difference what South bids. North had to take a bathroom break and was unable to continue participating in the auction.

[AL78]

DavidKok, on 2021-April-06, 02:20, said:

I think you're about an ace plus a queen too strong for 3NT. The notrump bids become more wide-ranged as the level goes up, both in strength and distribution. For me 3NT would show around 16-20 with their suit stopped and no overwhelming desire to play 4M instead. WIth all the aces and kings I'd rate this hand to be worth closer to 26 points, just to give a number. Of course if you double partner will bid clubs and you have a new decision to make, but presumably 4NT is to play on that auction. On the actual North hand your partner will jump (maybe even to 4NT to show the minors), and you have a chance of getting to 7♦ (or 7NT if you're greedy).

You might want to be in 7NT in case opener has eight hearts to the jack and you run into a ruff at trick one. I'm surprised he didn't have eight hearts, is that what passes as a vulnerable pre-empt in 1st seat these days?

[DavidKok]

pilowsky, on 2021-April-06, 02:51, said:

I forgot to mention that my (pick-up) partner insisted on playing Gerber - FWIW.

Unfortunate, but we all know what partners can be like if partner does not have a natural 4♣ available over your double (I would strongly recommend against playing this bid as Gerber, above and beyond the fact that I'm not a fan of it in general) that does change the situation a bit, in that the 4NT (minors) and 5♣ (to play) responses get a slightly lowered bottom of the range. But this doesn't change that your correct bid was double.

AL78, on 2021-April-06, 03:31, said:

You might want to be in 7NT in case opener has eight hearts to the jack and you run into a ruff at trick one. I'm surprised he didn't have eight hearts, is that what passes as a vulnerable pre-empt in 1st seat these days?

Over 4NT/5♣ presumably 7♦ will be played in your hand, but you are right that there is a risk of ruffs. That being said, it is difficult to gauge the trick-taking potential after such a preempt. I'm not sure I would have gotten to 7NT. Perhaps partner North would come to the rescue over an auction like (3♥)-X-(P)-4NT*; (P)-5♠*(strong with diamonds)-(P)-6♣(values); (P)-7♦-(P)-?, reasoning that I must be holding the missing aces and that the clubs will run, with the ♦K being a side entry.
As for the weak preempt: it is certainly very aggressive, given the vulnerability. Personally I rather like the bid, but it would require partnership agreement for sure (and with my regular partner I would not be able to bid this. It's better that we have the same expectations than that we can bid every preempt I think is worth bidding).

[Douglas43]

3NT may be ugly but I can't think of a better alternative. North could at least punt 6♣.

[helene_t]

Douglas43, on 2021-April-06, 11:44, said:

3NT may be ugly but I can't think of a better alternative. North could at least punt 6♣.

This. If we don't have a diamonds fit, North has to have quite a lot for slam to be good, and if the undisciplined 3♥ opening get W to lead a heart against 3NT we may already be ahead of the field.

"3nt is a shutout" is of course nonsense. There can be no such thing is a shutout bid* before partner's hand is sufficiently well described to give us captaincy. Here, partner hasn't even had the chance to bid once.

*OK, I suppose 7NT is always a shutout.

[apollo1201]

helene_t, on 2021-April-06, 16:41, said:

*OK, I suppose 7NT is always a shutout.

I thought it was a sign-off 😉

[gszes]

I admit that 3n is underbid but hardly the worst I have ever seen. My main problem is what was north thinking. South does not have a long running suit (if spades surely they would have preferred spades missing the AKQ of clubs). Even if south is dead minimum it is difficult to see any way 4n would be in danger. I would bid 4n.
That might miss some slams but it gives us a fair chance to get to one if south is not minimum. Here it might even get us to the 7 level though north will be hard to persuade given the "top" level of the 3n bid. over 3n (no more opp interference) 4n 5h (interested in a grand) 7c? hard to imagine p looking for a grand missing so much 7n hard tio imagine 7c making and 7n not making.