Winstonm, on 2021-May-30, 11:16, said:
Winning bridge most often is about avoiding mistakes rather than making brilliant plays. Continually count and mentally construct the unseen hands. As Bob Hamman once advised, you have to know what the problem is before you can find a solution. There is nothing easy about maintaining intense concentration and focus for 3 or 4 hours at a time.
The quote I recall, attributed to Hamman, is that one should never look at a decision and ask ‘what should I do?’. Instead, ask ‘what’s going on?’.
Once you’ve figured out ‘what’s going on’, it is far easier to then answer that other question: what can I do about it?
I’ve often toyed with the notion of writing some posts that I would call ‘the sea of information’.
On those occasions when an interested player asks me about a declarer or defensive problem, I sometimes use a Socratic approach.
Almost universally, the non-expert ‘knows’ something about the hand but hasn’t taken the time to figure out what that means.
In other words, they may have noticed that LHO led a 4th best 2 against 1N 3N, but doesn’t take the next step of inferring that that player probably doesn’t have a five card suit anywhere. Get some more information...say that player shows out on the second trick in our source of tricks...the odds are now very strong that he’s 4441. If you have a two way guess for a Queen in another suit, missing six cards, now (absent still other information), you have 4-2 odds that opening leader, tentatively assumed to have 4 cards in the suit, holds the Queen. Yet most non-experts think it’s a fifty fifty guess.
Or you’re in a contract missing AKQ of a side suit. The opening lead is in another suit. The odds are very good that opening leader doesn’t have AK or KQ in the suit where we’re missing the AKQ. If leader has made a call suggesting opening values, and we’re missing say 15 hcp, the odds are good leader has AQ and all the missing hcp other than the King. Maybe you’re missing the King in a nine card fit, with leader sitting behind the Ace. The expert may drop it singleton, especially if LHO is a fairly sound bidder.
Tidbits like this are present on the majority of hands, with the details varying. The reliability of these inferences is also variable...some are rock solid, others depend on your assessment of your opponents.
Often, an expert declarer will play to discover more information before making the important decision. The more honest the opps are in their carding, the easier this will be (which is why few experts signal except when they think partner may need to know, and experts routinely falsecard when they expect partner knows what’s going on.: my favourite of that was when Passell and Wold both signalled an odd holding in a suit where I was missing 6 cards....I was so sure they were lying that I played the suit to be 4-2, and felt a little insulted as well😝
This sort of ‘working out what’s going on’ is far more important than learning to pull off a trump squeeze or almost any of the techniques in Adventures in Card Play.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari