[thepossum]

I am not putting this up to gloat but out of surprise

IMPs tourney

You end in a possibly unwise looking 3NT.
East leads with King then Jack of hearts which you win in hand (sorry edited upside down - how do you turn the diagram upside down) with the Queen

How would you play to minimise any damage or risk

It seemed beginner level to me but obviously not to the rest of the field - maybe the odds work

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[AL78]

You have eight tricks off the top. If East can make a forcing bid opposite the equivalent of a weak two they are likely to have all the HCP except the heart ace or have a bit of distribution if missing one of the black honor cards. I can't see anything better than taking the club finesse.

If you want the declarer hand at the bottom make South declarer and adjust the auction accordingly.

[pescetom]

thepossum, on 2023-May-13, 06:34, said:

East leads with King then Jack of hearts which you win in hand (sorry edited upside down - how do you turn the diagram upside down) with the Queen

I struggle to see what you mean.
There is no way to invert the diagram, which in any case makes sense with East on lead, but I cannot imagine why he should lead K and continue J.
Is he a robot?

[thepossum]

AL78, on 2023-May-13, 14:44, said:

You have eight tricks off the top. If East can make a forcing bid opposite the equivalent of a weak two they are likely to have all the HCP except the heart ace or have a bit of distribution if missing one of the black honor cards. I can't see anything better than taking the club finesse.

If you want the declarer hand at the bottom make South declarer and adjust the auction accordingly.

Seemingly I am still at beginner level - I thought the odds weren't good enough to finesse and played for just 1 down - I envisioned West with a lot of hearts including the Ace and quite possibly the King of clubs - adding up to a lot of tricks. Quite possibly even a small spade to lead back to East
- there was something I hadn't envisioned though. All will be revealed

I should have added that Weak overcalls by West tend not to be super light - theoretically 6-10 HCPs. Easts bid was accurate distributionally

Yes Pescetom. East is a robot who managed to fool a lot of players

Maybe the odds work if you run a Sim over many replications but I think a more conservative 3 diamond contract was better

EDIT I am trying to run a Sim and strangely my concern over possible downsides didn't show up in many thousands of hands -EW fooling a DD sim too - I may ask to move this to another forum - unless of course it doesn't play the finesse - maybe we have found a flaw in DD analysis

[thepossum]

To avoid risk of annoying people -when I simply found an amusing curiosity

Here is the hand

Plus 11 IMPs - I know I am resulting and all evidence to date points to me not taking the Expert line

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[AL78]

You are like the players at my club, they love to drop singleton offside kings in my hand even if it is against the odds.

[AL78]

pescetom, on 2023-May-13, 15:36, said:

I struggle to see what you mean.
There is no way to invert the diagram, which in any case makes sense with East on lead, but I cannot imagine why he should lead K and continue J.

To avoid blocking the suit. If East has KJx then play from the top and hope West has an entry before declarer can get nine tricks. If East has KJ, the king is normal is it not?

[pescetom]

AL78, on 2023-May-14, 03:20, said:

To avoid blocking the suit. If East has KJx then play from the top and hope West has an entry before declarer can get nine tricks. If East has KJ, the king is normal is it not?

Yes, only the failure to cover the J is not normal.
But in that case the diagram is not upside down as OP confusingly suggested (without correcting).

[wuudturner]

Count the points.

West has made a weak 2 overcall in hearts. So I would expect West to have nominally the AK of hearts. But then East shows up with the king and jack of hearts. So West has only the ace in that suit. But we will expect West to have something like 7-9 points, maybe 10, I doubt as few as 6, since they are vulnerable.

What honors are missing outside of hearts? There are no diamond honors missing. The opps have the AK in spades, and the club king. That is all. So since I am pretty sure West has one of the missing honors just for the overcall, it is either the ace or king of spades, or the club king.

What does East have in points? East surely has at least one of the spade honors. And East is likely to have 5 and more likely 6 spades for the free bid in spades, the odds are better that East has both spade honors, than that East has the club king for the free bid taken.

However, in all of this analysis there is a second HIGHLY important fact you all need to remember about bot BEST HAND games. And this completely overrides everything else. Remember that you ALWAYS have the best hand at the table. No other hand can have more points than you, but they may have the same count. And this is something adhered to by BBO. It is not a bidding decision for the bots to make. What does this imply?

1. When you have 10 points, the distribution of points is EXACTLY 10-10-10-10.
2. When you have 11 points, If two of the other hands have 11 also, then the 4th hand has 7 points. This allows you to conclude that the other three hands have between 7 and 11 points. ALWAYS.
3. When you have 12 points, If two of the other hands have 12 also, then the 4th hand has 4 points. This allows you to conclude that the other three hands have between 4 and 12 points. ALWAYS.
4. When you have 13 points, If two of the other hands have 13 also, then the 4th hand has 1 point. This allows you to conclude that the other three hands have between 1 and 13 points. ALWAYS.
5. If you have 14+ points, then each of the other hands has between 0 and the count you hold.

The above applies to HCP, not total points, and it is a rule strictly adhered to in best hand games.

What does that tell you? South has 11 points. Therefore West has between 7 and 11 points, as do East and North. Since West has only the heart ace on the play of the first two tricks, you absolutely, 100% know that West has one other top honor.

That leaves West as the most likely person to hold the club king. But if West does have the club king, you cannot afford to take a club finesse since West has running hearts. And so that drives you to the conclusion that the only play for game it to just cash the club ace and pray. If the king does not drop stiff, then you cash your 8 tricks and go home.

If the field did not find this play, that just suggests the field is a normal field in these games. The normal fields playing bot games do not count points, and they likely do not appreciate the rules I stated above.

[jillybean]

Why are we posting BOT hands in the Beginner Bridge forum?

[wuudturner]

jillybean, on 2023-May-25, 08:48, said:

Why are we posting BOT hands in the Beginner Bridge forum?

Because possum likes to post there, and possum plays mainly bots games as I recall.

Is it a beginner hand? I don't think it a complex one. All it requires is you count points, and there were only 3 honors to be found.