Gilithin, on 2023-November-20, 16:43, said:
No, you are missing the point. If the avoided slam makes then there is no damage. This is not the scenario we are discussing. Rather, we need to consider the hands where slam is not making but Responder's 4♣ is likely to reach it. One example - in Forum D and SEF, Opener's 2NT in this auction shows 15-17 but at club level this is commonly forgotten and bid with 12-14 hands. Let us say that Responder's 4♣ (legally) woke up Opener and now they want to find a way to slow things down and (not legally) use an IB for that purpose. If the bad slam can be avoided through this method then the TD has to go through the aforementioned procedure. What matters is what the auction would likely have been without the infraction, whether there was damage and, for the 72C adjustment being discussed here, whether the "offender could have been aware at the time of histheir irregularity that it could well damage the non-offending side". You cannot just hold your hands up and assume 4NT is going to score poorly; you actually have to work out the probable auction and result.
I don't see what point I'm missing. We're specifically discussing the situation where 4NT is a top score - i.e. slam is going down but you were going to end up being there.
If there is a reason that opener can foresee that they don't want to be in slam despite responder's interest, and the only way to do so is to fake an insufficient bid, then they 'could have known' their insufficient bid would help them, and they're adjusted based on the likely contract and outcome had they not made the insufficient bid, as I said above.
But in most scenarios like this, they often have no way of knowing that getting out in 4NT is the best outcome; they have to gamble between high and low, so you cannot adjust based on 72C. Initially I was thinking if they gamble correctly, and would have possibly reached a worse contract without the insufficient bid, you still adjust based on 27D, but as pescetom has pointed out, the law doesn't allow that as written. Instead, they get stuck with their gamble - whether it's a fluky good score, or a bad score - but it's more likely to be the bad score since they have less information to go on. So it's not a case that the law lets them "get out of jail free" with the insufficient bid - it will cost them in the long run, even if they would gain occasionally by pure luck.