[jdiana]

This is a really basic question but, playing a standard strong (15-17 HCP) NT system, after 1NT-2NT, how do you decide whether to accept the invitation with a 16 HCP hand?

Some things are kind of obvious, e.g., good intermediates or a good 5-card suit that seems like a potential source of tricks would IMO be reasons to accept. A preponderance of queens and jacks or a worthless doubleton (or tripleton, if that's a word) would be reasons to decline. What other factors or approaches do you all apply in that situation?

[DavidKok]

https://www.bridgeba...o-go-on-to-3nt/ has a longer discussion on this exact question.

[jdiana]

DavidKok, on 2024-November-05, 09:07, said:

https://www.bridgeba...o-go-on-to-3nt/ has a longer discussion on this exact question.

Thanks! I must have missed that one (or forgotten about it, which happens more and more . . .).

[jillybean]

Good question, people laugh when I ask is it a good 16 or bad 16, but there’s a difference.

[apollo1201]

jdiana, on 2024-November-05, 08:47, said:

This is a really basic question but, playing a standard strong (15-17 HCP) NT system, after 1NT-2NT, how do you decide whether to accept the invitation with a 16 HCP hand?

Judgement 😁😁
More seriously, the elements you quoted (intermediates, honor structure, source of tricks) are not as obvious as you think to anyone.
A 4432 vs 4333 pattern. could also help you decide (I guess you know which one is best).
Do you play IMPs vs MPs?
Does partner tend to stretch and invites light or not? In all cases, you absolutely need to be on the same page on that.
Do you like your hand or not? And more importantly, why?
And the more you practice the more you can answer this and diagnose if you have a good or bad 16.
You can also see if your hands mesh well with partner known 7+ minor cards, eg robust M stops and nice m fillers rather than the reverse. Listening to the auction (what was said and what was not said) can also help you assess the combined potential.

[thepossum]

Not sure if this is a NB approach or not but it depends if I feel I can make it, and sometimes even if I just feel like playing safe

Always been a Dirty Harry fan

[steve2005]

Should accepting most 16 hcp hands
almost 50% of the time you are 15, those are the hands you decline

just play them better


actual odds
High Card Point Total Percentage
Count in 1 Hand Probability


17 23.4%
16 32.8%
15 43.8%