[jillybean]

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[akwoo]

Given partner did not make a spade cue, you don't have a source of tricks for slam. Give partner xx KQJx AK AKxxx and I still don't see where 12 tricks are coming from. (And, assuming 3N is non-serious, that hand is too good for 3N.)

Just bid 4H.

[Cyberyeti]

akwoo, on 2025-November-22, 07:54, said:

Given partner did not make a spade cue, you don't have a source of tricks for slam. Give partner xx KQJx AK AKxxx and I still don't see where 12 tricks are coming from. (And, assuming 3N is non-serious, that hand is too good for 3N.)

Just bid 4H.

If you can't see where 12 tricks are coming from opposite that, you have no imagination (2 club ruffs in dummy if clubs 4-3).

What 3N means will vary from partnership to partnership (would be a diamond cue for us).

[jillybean]

3nt is un discussed, "forward going" DSIP?

[Flem72]

Would partner open 1N with a 5422 17 count?

[jillybean]

Not here,no

[Huibertus]

jillybean, on 2025-November-22, 07:38, said:

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Hard to answer.

Partner bids reverse. Do you or don't you play Lebensohl over reverse. If you don't you have a lot to spare. If you do, you have what you should have with a tiny bit of extra's due to the Aces.

Is 3NT serious? Is it Non-Serious? (could it a proposal even?)

All in all, lacking answers to these questions I'd assume 3NT was serious and I'd consider my hand good, So I'm cueing 4♠.

[mike777]

Easy 4h

Btw prefer 2H reverse flannery with that hand.

[jillybean]

You can assume Leb/reverse and with 3nt, partner is probing for more.
How do you evaluate this hand and do you coopertae?

What do the Losing Trick Count Guru's think of this hand?

[mike777]

Adjusted LTC
8 losers, add one more loser for only 8 card fit, subtract 0.5 losers for good controls=8.5 losers
Whatever good that tells you.

I don't think LTC is much help here.


How I look at it,
Partner reversed, my 3H bid shows around 9+pts and 4 hearts.
3NT is waiting bid, asking me to show:
A or K of clubs...nope
A or K or void or stiff Diamond...nope
Extra shape..nope
Extra HCP...nope....

[mw64ahw]

7.5 mod. losers, 2xAce and a singleton is worth a 4♣ cue if 3N is serious. The reverse should be worth 17+ so 26+ combined. Partner needs a bit of shape for 6♥ to work.

[thepossum]

If you use LTC it is just game however you look at it from West. Bid 4H. If east has extraordinary shape and controls maybe they will explore slam

PS I am no guru but find it a good guide
PPS I think people are having themselves on. I even ran a basic sim giving East quite a generous hand with controls (18+ HCPs, 2 Aces and KQ hearts - Could try all controls - that is all controls) . And still even game is not great. So I think basic LTC has it

[DavidKok]

jillybean, on 2025-November-22, 14:45, said:

You can assume Leb/reverse and with 3nt, partner is probing for more.
How do you evaluate this hand and do you coopertae?

What do the Losing Trick Count Guru's think of this hand?

Let's start with the easy question. Traditional LTC simply counts: 2 spades, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds, 1 club. That's 8.
There are dozens of modified losing trick counts out there, a lot of them quite bad. A few years ago I read a somewhat long (80 pages introduction and historical context, ~150 pages of statistical analysis and explanation) Dutch book on MLTC and was happy to learn that their conclusions matched my own: as it's a crude tool, there's limited value in making it too sophisticated. But if you're going to insert sophistry, do it as well aligned with data as possible. This gave me a MLTC that I like. It counts 1.5 in spades, 1.5 in hearts, 3 in diamonds, 1.5 in clubs for 7.5 total. Partner's reverse is expected to start around 6, maybe 5.5. That means that together we are, using this crude scheme, a favourite to take 25-6-7.5 = 11.5 tricks. Close to slam.

Proper hand evaluation does none of the above. Try to visualise what hands partner can have on the auction thus far, and whether slam seems likely. If you think it is, how can you tell partner what they need to know to make the right decision (or, less often, how can you ask partner for the missing information to make the decision)? LTC considers the club singleton an asset, but with partner's known length it is really not.
Even with Lebensohl I think we have extra values. Partner's most likely distributions are 1=4=3=5 and 1=4=2=6 (note: if you show a singleton control with 3♠ opposite a known 5(+) card suit this drastically changes the assessment, as now we have a known slow spade loser!), and two aces is very promising when we've shown just a non-minimum heart raise. I would bid 4♦ Last Train, denying the ♣A/K and telling partner that I have extra values but am uncomfortable bidding past 4♥.

[Cyberyeti]

mw64ahw, on 2025-November-22, 15:21, said:

7.5 mod. losers, 2xAce and a singleton is worth a 4♣ cue if 3N is serious. The reverse should be worth 17+ so 26+ combined. Partner needs a bit of shape for 6♥ to work.

Never make your first cue in partner's long suit a shortage

[jillybean]

David, I understand the 4♦ last train. How do you accept the slam try and show a diamond control?

I don't play losing trick count myself but I hear a lot of players, club players and BBO reference it, usually after a decision that didn't turn out well.

[jillybean]

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[mw64ahw]

jillybean, on 2025-November-23, 06:34, said:

David, I understand the 4♦ last train. How do you accept the slam try and show a diamond control?

I don't play losing trick count myself but I hear a lot of players, club players and BBO reference it, usually after a decision that didn't turn out well.

I play with one lady who uses LTC rather than modified and it's not infrequent that we end up down 1.

[bluenikki]

I guess opener's 3NT guarantees that they have four hearts.

If their shape was 3=3=2=5, a live possibility for me, they'd have bid 3♠.

[thepossum]

 mw64ahw, on 2025-November-23, 07:50, said:

I play with one lady who uses LTC rather than modified and it's not infrequent that we end up down 1.

Generally says more about how people use something
Sorry spent some time modelling (not catwalks) in my life lol

[Cyberyeti]

bluenikki, on 2025-November-23, 07:58, said:

I guess opener's 3NT guarantees that they have four hearts.

If their shape was 3=3=2=5, a live possibility for me, they'd have bid 3♠.

If 2♥ can be 3 I'm not playing that system, rebid in NT

So result is a slam that makes unless they find the lead of dummy's first suit.