mycroft, on 2026-February-06, 20:58, said:
I don't know the followups for "North's usual Multi", but I bet 3NT isn't part of them.
I also bet that South's intention was to show 18-19 balanced, and I would guess 3NT opposite a potential zero-count isn't how it's done in South's system. In fact, I'd guess 2NT is the call.
I also bet that South knows how North will interpret 2NT, and it a) won't be Natural and b) won't be passed (even with a zero count).
I'm speaking out of my hat, but if 2♦ was just Alerted without any explanation, the auction would go 2♦-2NT; 3minor (which one depends on what 2NT is in North's system)-NT system response, and they'll end up either in something stupid like 3♥ or way too high before it's obvious the auction has gone off the rails. And South knows this because he's heard North's explanation. So South hits the magic "3NT is always to play" button to bypass all of this. Sure, he might catch a zero-count and go off, but it won't be worse than anything else at the 3 level, and he'll stop at the 3 level.
I will admit I haven't seen "Unauthorized Panic" in NT for a while, if ever; but that's clearly what it is.
Now, there's a lot of speculation here - especially given "I don't play Multi at all, and when I did, it never had a strong option". But what we do is find out (or already know, because it's "standard" in Italy) what North's rebid system is for the strong hands, and what South's rebid is in his system for the 18-19 balanced hand. And then work out, from those conflicting systems, what the auction would be, and where it would stop (and whether it would be doubled). And since I bet it's not N/S +430, we assign that score.
We might also ask South, as we get him to explain his systemic rebids, why he bid 3NT instead. And if he's at the level where he should know better (or if he's a compatriot of one of mine in the "if you're not listening to what partner says, you're leaving matchpoints on the table" world), then maybe the adjusted score isn't enough to stop this in future. If he's not at that level yet, a good explanation about why a penalty might be in order if he was more experienced suffices.
It is reassuring to see that I am not alone or insane.
I presented this same problem to our regional directors and everyone shrugged it off as a normal result of the normal contract, the convention mishap did not influence the lead or defence and the lead makes no difference anyway.
And yet all of them play bridge and most have directed with screens.
Perhaps they should be obliged to play occasionally on BBO

I did hope barmar at least would spot the difference that would have made.