[pclayton]

You reach 3N on the following cards after 1♥ - 2♥ - 2N - 3N:

---

LHO leads the ♣2 (3/5). RHO wins the A, returns one to LHO's K and LHO clears the suit with a lowish club; RHO pitching a middle ♦.

Plan the play.

(Note: heart spots changed)

[inquiry]

I assume EAST followed to the third round since you didn't mention a discard.

I would play WEST for the heart queen so that the jack provides a despirately needed entry to dummy. Rough idea is win club, take diamond hook through EAST. If it wins or loses, we should have 1431 tricks if all goes well in hearts. This total doesn't count what might be a free finessee in spades if WEST wins the heart queen and doesn't cash the 13th club (he would have to have lead a tricky 4th best). Taking the finessee at imps after 4♥ are secure might be a lttle risky and I would probably skip it, at matchpont, of course, I would hook in spades late in the hand, as the contract and lead looks normal.

[pclayton]

inquiry, on Mar 1 2007, 09:34 AM, said:

I assume EAST followed to the third round since you didn't mention a discard.

I would play WEST for the heart queen so that the jack provides a despirately needed entry to dummy. Rough idea is win club, take diamond hook through EAST. If it wins or loses, we should have 1431 tricks if all goes well in hearts. This total doesn't count what might be a free finessee in spades if WEST wins the heart queen and doesn't cash the 13th club (he would have to have lead a tricky 4th best). Taking the finessee at imps after 4♥ are secure might be a lttle risky and I would probably skip it, at matchpont, of course, I would hook in spades late in the hand, as the contract and lead looks normal.

Ben; our posts must have crossed; I edited it quickly after I posted originally. RHO pitched on the 3rd club.

[pclayton]

Jlall, on Mar 1 2007, 10:10 AM, said:

Don't know if you meant to do this but the heart spots were different in the real life deal.

Not by a lot. I'll find the record and change them though.

(changed); original had J9x instead of J87)

[Free]

I'll cash ♥AK

[Apollo81]

♥A, ♥K, ♦A, run the ♦J

If the ♥Q doesn't appear then RHO must hold the ♠K for me to have a chance.

The nice thing about this line is that if LHO has the ♦Qx then I make (by overtaking and then finishing the diamonds) regardless of who has ♥Qxx.

[ArcLight]

Where are our tricks coming from?
1 Club
1 Spade, 2 if we risk the finesse
3 Diamonds - A K and one more

we need 4 hearts

A big problem is entries to dummy to lead hearts through east (ducking if the Q is played) and also making 3 dimes if west doesnt cover or east does have the Q

Leading a Dime to the Jack doesnt help either.

Cashing the AK of Dimes will not drop the Q (9%?)
Cashing the AK of hearts may get us 4, either dropping the doubleton Q or allowing East to be given his trick and the suit established.


I'll take the Spade finesse.
The problem with first testing Diamonds is if west has Qxx♦ and east wins a heart and leads a ♦.

Spade finesse.
Cash Dime Ace
Cash AK hearts and put in East
entry to our hand in Spades (Ace) for the rest of the hearts, and the dime J for the K

[temp3600]

Same line as Apollo81's.
If the ♦J holds, revert to hearts, playing East for the ♥Q and the ♠K.

[ArcLight]

So post the answer already

[pclayton]

ArcLight, on Mar 6 2007, 05:37 AM, said:

So post the answer already

There isn't an 'answer' to this.

I've given this hand to a lot of really great players, and I can't come up with a consensus.

[Halo]

I'd be interested in the suggestions of the players you consulted, because I was silenced by Apollo's contribution.

[inquiry]

Ok, so clubs were 5-2. The reply "lho returned a "lowsih" club is a little confusing. We know all the spots in clubs now. While it probably doesn't matter did he return the lowest, the seond lowest or the highest? I will assume the "lowest" club means the spade hook will win.

So I place the spade king with RHO. The good news is maybe i can use the spade Queen as an entry to my hand if RHO ends up winning something (a diamond or a heart).

What I will not do now is take a spade finessee, even though I have reasons now to believe it it will win. So we will win 2S, 1C, 2 top hearts. Even if we find the diamond Queen, we are only going to be able to command 2D initially (unless Qx doubleton) were we get 3 diamond. That comes to 2S+1C+2H+3D and only 8 tricks. So we need to set up hearts.

Since we need three hearts at least, and more likely 4 hearts, i am going to play on hearts, and i am going to do so now, so that 4♥+2♠+1♣+2♦ is down only one after they cash their clubs if i get hearts wrong. The line of play that occurs to me is to try to duck a heart trick to RHO by getting him to cover the heart JACK. This will work if he has Qx, Qxx, QTx, Q9x, QT9, QTxx, Q9xx. This solution involves leading the ♥Jack and if he covers, duck. Also, if LHO;s play on the ♥Jack gives away that he holds the heart queen, also duck.

Sadly, a good player might very well duck the heart smootly with any of these holdings (takes nerve of steel to duck with QT9, for instance). I would jump up with the heart ACE if the jack was not covered (damn it).

At this point:

• IF the queen drops from rho (yes could be QT doubleton but if so, they got me), I would exit a low heart from dummy. Plan is to set up a finesse for the second honor of the T9 combination (assuming T9xx).
  
• If rho drops a heart lower heart than 9, I would continue with top heart and when both follow, another heart. Hoping for 3-2 split with the good guy having the three.
  
• The question is how to continue if rho drops the TEN or the NINE under the Ace of hearts. If he has T9 doubleton, then of course, we need to enter our hand with a diamond and lead a heart towards dummy, ducking if the queen shows and rising with the King otherwise. But the T or 9 could be from T9x, QT9, Tx, 9x, QTx, Q9x, or of course, T, or 9 singleton. From QT9, QTx, Q9x, we are going down. From T9, the avoidance play sees us home (2S, 4H, 1C, 2D). But from T, or 9 doubleton the correct play is, once again, low heart from dummy.

I am playing LHO to be short in hearts not only because he has 5 clubs, but because of the diamond discard. It is not certain, but the lack of a spade discard by RHO on third club, places a fair nubmer of spades in LHO hand along with his five clubs. So if T or 9 shows up from RHO, I think the correct play is probably continue small heart just as if the Queen had showed up (playing lho for singleton). It may not be necessary to lead the JACK to effect this play, but psychologically, you might get a cover or a hitch...

[cherdano]

Ben, I see no advantage of your "running" the ♥J compared to just playing hearts from the top. If RHO has Qxx, LHO won't get in anyway, and if RHO or LHO has Qx, you certainly wish you had started from the top.

[mikeh]

I'm not surprised there was no consensus: there is a LOT to think about here.

I started a long, long reply, but the permutations are far too complex to warrant trying to examine them all in print. We have to worry about a host of matters, including how we play if the ♥Q appears on the 1st round...if from LHO then it will be an honest card, but if from RHO, a well-read or imaginative RHO might hold Q10 and hope I held AK9xx. We need to consider whether we will pop the ♠ A if and when RHO returns a ♠ after winning a ♦ hook... if the ♥Q has dropped doubleton (my analysis says we reject the hook, at the probable expense of an overtrick, in favour of the additional, altho tiny, chance of dropping West's stiff K... if we are competing against 4♥, this is worth our while since in that layout 4♥ fails (unless declarer peeks).

And so on: I had got to several long paragraphs without touching on the line if the ♥Q does not drop

A side issue for the poster. In these hands, it is of some interest to the more anal of us (me?) to know the ♣ spots. Thus, if declarer has been able to conceal the deuce-equivalent, LHO may have to at least pause to consider whether his partner had Axx... and thus LHO should consider ducking with no clear entry... while if LHO clearly knows that it is declarer with xxx, he will win and clear the suit regardless of his entry position: he ain't winning and switching on this dummy and auction.

I admit that this is of only the tiniest significance, but these are things that I think good declarers notice at the table (and routinely falsecard with xxx to create the ambiguity) and they do play a role in real-life thinking, at least of the somewhat obsessive variety I indulge in

Anyway, a good hand if only to show that there are hands that justify a declarer taking 10 or 15 minutes before playing to trick 4.

[pclayton]

Well, here is the entire hand. Perhaps things will make more sense:

---

At the table, I figured that unless hearts were coming in for 5 tricks, I needed the spade hook, so I took it immediately.

I then tried the A-K♥. When I saw the split, my trick count was back to 8. With the diamond blockage, I thought I needed my LHO to hold the QD, because if RHO had the QD, I'm toast anyway, since a diamond exit from his side does me no good.

At the table I actually played the J♦ losing to the Q for a quick -1. From the position I was in, A-J♦ is a slight improvement, but not much.

Here's a sampling of the suggestions. Most are from my peers, and a few are from some of the best players in southern california.

1. When you see the ♥9 fall, play LOW to the Jack. You can then pick up QTxx on your right.

2. You can delay the spade finesse, because if the ♥Qx frops you don't need it.

3. Run the JH off the board at T3. On the actual hand, this gets 5 heart tricks.

What was suggested to me by one of my regular partners here is that once the spade hook wins, the hand becomes very interesting. If you make the assumption that if LHO has the heart length you are always down, but you can cope with ANY 4-1 heart break.

Win the club, take the spade finesse and try one high heart. Assuming nothing happens, play ♦A-J immediately.

On the actual hand, RHO is stuck. If he plays a ♦ back, your trick count is up to 8 without the hearts. Assuming RHO has at least 3 hearts, he gets pulverized on the 3rd diamond. Then, cashing the ♥A-K counts out his hand, and you can either drop the ♠K or endplay him again.

If he plays a heart, you are at the crossroads, but if you stick to your guns, you will make.

I think this is the best thought out analysis, although handling the heart suit differently once you see the 9 works out is just as effective.

Honestly, I kind of like my line on a technical basis too. I think its best to try to clear diamonds before clearing hearts.

Hopefully this will at least spur some more discussion about this one.

[1eyedjack]

I felt it was right to finesse the Diamonds through East, mainly because I do not want East to lead a Spade through the Ace before the Hearts are established. I do not fear a Spade lead from West. If the Diamond finesse fails to West then I shall need the Spade finesse and there are also squeeze prospects against East if the Diamond Queen doesn't drop in 3.

[bid_em_up]

1eyedjack, on Mar 7 2007, 01:28 AM, said:

If the Diamond finesse fails to West then I shall need the Spade finesse and there are also squeeze prospects against East if the Diamond Queen doesn't drop in 3.

If the diamond finesse fails to West, you are immediately down as he cashes the rest of his clubs.

[1eyedjack]

bid_em_up, on Mar 7 2007, 06:27 PM, said:

1eyedjack, on Mar 7 2007, 01:28 AM, said:

If the Diamond finesse fails to West then I shall need the Spade finesse and there are also squeeze prospects against East if the Diamond Queen doesn't drop in 3.

If the diamond finesse fails to West, you are immediately down as he cashes the rest of his clubs.

Oops, miscounted. Thought I could afford to lose the clubs. I do that occasionally at the table also.

[karlson]

It looks to me like after the spade hook wins and righty shows up with the hearts you're just cold, regardless of diamond Q location, by playing a 3rd heart. If he returns a diamond, put in the J, then play the DA (leaving a tenace on the board whether lefty covered or not), and play a fourth heart. Righty is endplayed to give you the rest of the tricks. If he returns a spade, just set up the heart to get 3s+3h+2d+1c. No?