[shanbari]

>S: 843
>H: A4
>D: 543
>C: AQ764
>
>
>S: AKQJ7
>H: K7
>D: AK62
>C: 93



IMPS, 6s by south, west led DJ, what's your plan ?

[pclayton]

The only reasonable line I can find is to draw trump and hook the club. Wins if clubs are 3-3 (I'll make 7 if the K is on).

If the ♣K is on, but they are 4-2 or 5-1, I need 3-3 diamonds. I calculate this line at about 47%. A minor suit squeeze probably won't operate here.

[catch22]

Is duck a club followed by the finnese better?

[pclayton]

catch22, on Jul 13 2007, 10:50 AM, said:

Is duck a club followed by the finnese better?

I considered that, but that seems to only cater to 3-3 or 4-2 clubs with the King on, which is in the 42% range.

[Fluffy]

There is also another line: duck a diamonds and ruff 4th in dummy (if neccesary).

This requires ♣K to be onside, ♦ to be 3-3 or 4-2 with the doubleton having 1 or 2 spades.

but I think this is inferior to the play in clubs.

[shanbari]

this is quite a "simple hand" by first look. i didn't pay attention until one of friends surprised me.


he is pointing out that, Finesse CQ at first trick is an illusion, it only gains one overtrick when KXX on side. no benefits when any 42 splits.


how about duck first club then finesse CQ ? This line gains when KX, KXXX on side.
but fail on KXX & KX off side. and it gives up diamond 33, so it's not much better..



here's 3rd choice. duck first club, then cash CA to setup club suit. (totally refuse FINESSE CQ). This line gains when KX by either defender hand. and when club is not 33. you still come back for diamond 3-3 chance. it's certainly better.

[pclayton]

shanbari, on Jul 14 2007, 05:54 AM, said:

this is quite a "simple hand" by first look. i didn't pay attention until one of friends surprised me.


he is pointing out that, Finesse CQ at first trick is an illusion, it only gains one overtrick when KXX on side. no benefits when any 42 splits.


how about duck first club then finesse CQ ? This line gains when KX, KXXX on side.
but fail on KXX & KX off side. and it gives up diamond 33, so it's not much better..



here's 3rd choice. duck first club, then cash CA to setup club suit. (totally refuse FINESSE CQ). This line gains when KX by either defender hand. and when club is not 33. you still come back for diamond 3-3 chance. it's certainly better.

Yes and no. Once you duck a club, you can't take advantage of 3-3 diamonds.

However, as you mention - you do get to enjoy all doubleton Kings by ducking the club first, and then trying Ace and another. Thats 10 more of the 64 combinations. The 3-3's total 35.5% and the Kx's add another 15.6% for 50% which is slightly better than the initial club hook.

So its better, but not by a lot

By the way, I suck at calculating percentages, so anyone can feel free to correct me.