mikestar13, on 2019-September-13, 10:31, said:
If NS play penalty doubles here, North has a reasonable X at white vs. red and South with ♠xxx and ♥xx has no reason to disturb it. South should expect a good penalty, 800 is a bit lucky, but 500 should still be be a top or near top. But virtually everyone plays X here as takeout.
As you say, virtually everyone plays X here as takeout, or so I thought. The RA doesn't mandate or allow alerting of low level penalty doubles and NS had no system card. 500 would still have been 97%, 460 was 68% and 430 was 33%.